GOOD MORNING,

Prices are mixed as we head into the Planting Intentions/March1 stocks on Wed at 11:00 central time.  Meal struggles against soyoil futures, while most of the markets remain on the defensive as all head into this major report long.  Oilshare finds some stability as crude oil prices work back over the $60/barrel mark even though a steep drop in vegoil demand has sparked current liquidation.   Month-end selling continues, and profit-taking into the March 31 report.  

March trade remains choppy as managed funds have stopped purchasing grains until they see the data in Wed. report.  Inverses are weaker today as China buying has slowed.  Corn prices struggle as many expect a bearish acreage figure to be released on Wed.  China purchased Ukraine corn last week in addition to US supply.  Wheat struggles as prices search for that spark of demand.  Russian wheat prices fell sharply last week, which extends the weaker path for the fourth consecutive week.  Russia's SovEcon said wheat prices fell by $21 to $253/ton.  

The blockage of the Suez Canal by the vessel Ever Given has been mostly straightened along the eastern bank of the canal, and further tugging operations will resume once the tide rises later in the day.  

WEATHER

--US weather saw some relief come to portions of Montana and a few areas in the western Dakotas, but dryness in the Northern Plains remains a problem.  Sufficient moisture and warming is expected over the next few weeks which should help fieldwork to continue in the Delta and Southeastern states.  Dryness may return to parts of the HRW areas, which saw some relief over the last few days.  The 6/10-day outlook calls for scattered showers in the east through Wed., mostly dry Thursday - Sunday.  Temps below normal Wed/Thu but near to above normal west and below normal east.  The planting window remains good to allow for the crops to get in on time.  

--SA has scattered showers drying up in Brazil, benefiting late harvest.  Scattered showers over the south are increasing soil moisture.  Showers continue to help beans in Argentina.  

REPORTS

Commitment-of-Traders report disaggregated futures / options combined:

beans: net long 162,853

meal:  net long 56,799

soyoil:  net long 93,977

corn: net long 388,175

wheat:   net long 8,160 (possibly net short now)

These are the positions that the funds will take into the March 31 Stocks/Acreage report on Wed.  Last week, funds were small net buyers of corn and soy, and moderate sellers of soyoil.  

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Brazil's Safras reported that 67% of Brazil's bean crop has been harvested, vs. 74% year ago, with the normal at 70%.  They raised crop projections +1 mmt to 134 mmt.  IMEA announced that Matto Grosso's bean harvest is 97.2% complete, vs. 92% week ago, and vs. 99% average.  

Brazil's Safrinha corn crop is estimated at 100% complete in Mato Grosso, as reported by Safras, with late crops making May-June weather critical.  

USDA Ag Sec. Vilsack clarified that Mexico's GMO corn ban would only apply to "people food", not livestock feed.

Ukraine's farms in the southern and eastern regions have started 2021 spring sowing, seeding the first 106,300 hectares of wheat, barley, peas, and oats as of March 25, the ministry announced, which was late due to cold extremes in the country.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  3-5 lower

meal:  4.00-4.80 lower

soyoil;  10-15 higher

corn:  4 1/2-5 1/2 lower

wheat:  1 1/2-2 1/2 lower

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Firmer crude at $61.77/barrel, and a firmer US dollar at 92.91, which is negative for wheat and Ags in general.  Stocks will open lower this AM. 

TECH TALK

• May soyoil trades to 52c but found support at this major benchmark to trade back towards 53c.  The trade to 52c met previous lows in early March before the placement of a new ctr high at 5825c.  The ADX has fallen to 47, but a strong uptrend remains in place which suggests that this level is value.  If short, would consider opting out and looking for a place to own the market.  However, channel resistance has fallen to 56c, and therefore we could be a 52c-56c into the data.  
• May meal prices cannot get over the top of the down-trend channel which crosses at the high of the session at $405.00.  The bottom of the May meal downtrend channel is $389.00, though we likely will not see it.  On further weakness, however, we could re-test $395.00 once more.  
• May bean prices slip back under $14.00 and under visual trendline support at $13.95.  The 50-day moving average is $13.93, and the slight move under major support suggests that further weakness may be ahead.  The trend ADX remains very weak at 13, meaning follow-through to one side or the other is not likely.  If prices can remain over $14.00, then $14.25 remains the pivot level. It may be up to soyoil to take beans higher.   Nov. bean prices are working sideways, but could start to head lower.  Major support is $11.98/$12.02, but we could go there.   If so, would expect it to hold as key support.   
• May corn is sideways from $5.35 - $5.55, with multiple tops now located at $5.55/$5.58.  This resistance now appears stronger than support.  The 50-day moving average is $5.43 with major trendline support at $5.37 on a break.  The chart remains a major sideways trade, and would not expect a complete break-down.  December corn 50-day moving average is $4.63, and double lows are now in this vicinity.  The Dec. corn trading range has been from $4.60-$4.85, so would expect prices to hold this break and continue sideways.  If needing to price, would do so and wait to see if the $4.60 level is violated on more fund liquidation.   
• May wheat appears vulnerable to new lows, as the major trend has been lower.  The market is heading to oversold, but it is not at a corrective extreme yet.  Look for major trendline support at $6.05/$6.06 to hold should we go there.  Target lows under $6.00 are close by at $5.90, and weaker price action suggests we eventually trade it. 

MAY SOYOIL

The major trend has been higher, but the pullback has been slicing through major support levels to trade all the way to new lows at 5200c.  The market has yet to stabilize, though visual trendline support does cross until 5120c.  For the day we are going to see if the overnight low at 52c will stick for retracement trade, and a possible 52c-56c comfort zone heading into the report.  The ADX has come down from the 50's, but is still strong at 47, meaning the possibility of recovery is good.  Prices will begin in the green, but would not be surprised to see another test of 52c for the day as a re-check of value.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America