GOOD MORNING,

Prices are starting the session on a firmer note led by wheat.  The trade continues to monitor the pace of South American bean and corn plantings, trade negotiations, and the next set of data that will come out of the December WASDE.  In terms of new announcements, a Chinese Communist tabloid reported that China remained committed to a phase one deal and was "very close'" to securing it.  In terms of business, Chinese buyers were reported to have purchased as many as 20 cargoes of Brazilian beans last week as uncertainty over a trade deal turned them back to South America once again.   

Global stocks are higher, with the Dow up 66 pts as well, after China said it would step up intellectual property protection and enforcement, a move that investors hope would address one of the key concerns for US negotiations on the trade deal.  

WEATHER

Temps much to above normal Monday, near to above normal Tues into Thanksgiving.  Drier weather at this time will allow for more corn and bean harvesting in the northern plains, though a major storm later this week could put an end to any additional harvesting for the year.  

Brazil will see mostly beneficial rainfall patterns this week, except in northeast Bahia where it is expected to remain hot and dry.   Mostly favorable weather is on tap for planting and developing corn and beans in the major growing areas of central Argentina.  Weather for now remains neutral.

REPORTS

Commitment-of-Trader's report on disaggregated futures/options combined managed money positions as of Nov 19:

beans:  net long 18,452

meal:   net short 57,257

soyoil:  net long 82,356

corn:  net short 123,530

wheat:  net short 2,049

The largest position remains in corn, which may uncover more short-covering into the shortened holiday week.  

Cattle-on-Feed:  

Feed as of Nov 1:  101%, as expected vs. prior month at 99%

Placements for Oct:  110% as expected vs. prior month at 112%

Marketings:  99% vs. 100% expected

Report is neutral but placements were positive for feed demand.  

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Brazil's ARC Mercosul estimated bean planting at 77.3% vs. 89.6% year ago, and vs. the five-year average of 80.5%.

France AgriMer forecasts 2020 soft wheat planting progress to be 74% complete vs. 71% week ago.

Chinese customs data indicates Brazilian bean imports for Oct. totaled 3.79 mmt, down 42% from year ago, while imports of US beans for Oct. were 1.15 mmt, sharply higher than year ago.  Over the first 10 months of 2019, Brazil soy imports totaled 48.9 mmt, off 13.5% from year ago, while US soy imports for the same period were 11.3 mmt, down 31.8% from 2018.  

Reuters reports that Taiwan is looking to increase purchases of US goods to avoid being labelled a currency manipulator.  They are said to be looking at US beans, corn, crude oil, and natural gas.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans:  1 1/2-2 higher

meal:  steady

soyoil:  3-5 lower

corn:  1 higher

wheat:  6-8 higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Outside markets feature a weaker crude oil trade, at $57.56/barrel, and a higher US dollar trading up to 98.33.  

TECH TALK

• March wheat continues on a firm path, hitting new trading range highs after posting a solid series of low trades at $5.11, now very good support in a market that has yet to define its upside.  First resistance is located at $5.29/$5.30, but over that level there is nothing till the market hits $5.40.  
• March corn has a bit of a more positive look as well, with a series of defined lows from $3.76-$3.78 marking support.  Trade remains muted, but the turn sideways from lower is net positive and could allow recovery up towards $3.83/$3.86.  
• Jan beans remain defensive after traveling down to $8.95 1/2, and trendline support is located at $8.94 on another move downward.  
• Jan meal tests new lows at $300.00, but price action favors a hold at this level, as it has proven to be a value level on breaks of size.  
• The Jan soyoil chart continues to look toppy with a possible head and shoulders formation.  For now, the right shoulder continues to form with congestion trade from 3050c to 3150c.  Trade over 3170c breaks the pattern and negative the suggestion that a top is in place.  

MARCH WHEAT

Strong technical price action building a base of support at $5.11 with prices now topping recent peak highs of $5.22.  The higher price action will not see resistance now until the chart moves into $5.30, and over that $5.40.   The trend is still rather weak with the ADX at 13 (anything under 25 is a weak trend), but the market remains well bid and pullbacks will now invite new buying activity or short-covering.  Trading range appears to be a solid $5.10 bid up to possible highs of $5.35/$5.40 given today's outlook.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America