Crude Oil and Feedlot Rations
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, efforts are afoot to put a safety net under global crude oil prices. President Trump is communicating with Saudi Arabia and Russia to coordinate a détente in their price and production war, and the so-called OPEC-Plus group, which includes OPEC memb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called mixed/lower to start today and it did just that. Corn and the soy complex were subject to fund selling and broke key technical support points while the wheat market strengthened on news of a Russian export quota. The livestock markets are in complete disarray and swung from...
Fundamentals and the Pandemic
USDA’s 31 March reports containing its estimates of preliminary planting intentions and 1 March quarterly stocks provided a few surprises. The biggest surprise was the planting intentions for corn of 97 million acres which, if realized, would be the second largest U.S. planted corn acreag...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called to open lower amid a jittery stock market and continued feuding between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil prices. The market opened as called but found better than expected strength early in the morning. The corn market opened just a few cents lower as traders continue to bel...
Rhyme Not Repeat
There is no proxy for the exact current global commodity situation, though it looks familiar at this juncture. Petroleum is arguably being over-produced, as are major crops like corn, wheat and soybeans. Each of the aforementioned are at or near record carryover. In the historical boom/bust cyc...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Update The European weather has been more favorable for spring fieldwork and crop development this past week, with most of the continent receiving below-average rainfall last week. The coming week will be drier-than-normal for most of the continent as well, though rainfall in Spain wil...
No Shortage of Food
There is a shortage of respirators and masks, but not food. The actual exporting of food has slowed in some cases due to restrictions on labor, but Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa assembled the following list of food export bans: • Kazakhstan has banned exports of whe...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 March 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market changed little. We’ll see significant changes caused by ruble rate decrease during the week starting 9 March. Meanwhile, on the export market prices kept decreasing: milling wheat average price decreased to...
Potential SRE Challenge Amid Oil Market Bust
Energy markets are being buffeted by a number of global events and collapsing oil prices are putting ethanol under pressure. The nearby ethanol futures contract dropped this morning below $1.20/gal, which is the record low close set in November 2018. The contract closed at $1.2229/gal. Of cours...
Oil and Agriculture
An oil war has begun between Saudi Arabia and Russia and its impacts are important for agriculture. Energy products are key inputs, affecting field work costs, fertilizer prices and ultimately marketing. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) had predicted an average oil price in 2020 of arou...
Crude Oil and Feedlot Rations
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, efforts are afoot to put a safety net under global crude oil prices. President Trump is communicating with Saudi Arabia and Russia to coordinate a détente in their price and production war, and the so-called OPEC-Plus group, which includes OPEC memb...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called mixed/lower to start today and it did just that. Corn and the soy complex were subject to fund selling and broke key technical support points while the wheat market strengthened on news of a Russian export quota. The livestock markets are in complete disarray and swung from...
Fundamentals and the Pandemic
USDA’s 31 March reports containing its estimates of preliminary planting intentions and 1 March quarterly stocks provided a few surprises. The biggest surprise was the planting intentions for corn of 97 million acres which, if realized, would be the second largest U.S. planted corn acreag...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was called to open lower amid a jittery stock market and continued feuding between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil prices. The market opened as called but found better than expected strength early in the morning. The corn market opened just a few cents lower as traders continue to bel...
Rhyme Not Repeat
There is no proxy for the exact current global commodity situation, though it looks familiar at this juncture. Petroleum is arguably being over-produced, as are major crops like corn, wheat and soybeans. Each of the aforementioned are at or near record carryover. In the historical boom/bust cyc...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Update The European weather has been more favorable for spring fieldwork and crop development this past week, with most of the continent receiving below-average rainfall last week. The coming week will be drier-than-normal for most of the continent as well, though rainfall in Spain wil...
No Shortage of Food
There is a shortage of respirators and masks, but not food. The actual exporting of food has slowed in some cases due to restrictions on labor, but Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa assembled the following list of food export bans: • Kazakhstan has banned exports of whe...
Energy Situation Recap
Ethanol markets continue to be battered on both sides: the COVID19 related demand drop and the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war supply shock. Ethanol values are following corn up and down with all the other gyrations in the market. Facing a deadline of Tuesday 31 March (which is the en...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 March 2020 Grain prices on the domestic Russian market changed little. We’ll see significant changes caused by ruble rate decrease during the week starting 9 March. Meanwhile, on the export market prices kept decreasing: milling wheat average price decreased to...
Potential SRE Challenge Amid Oil Market Bust
Energy markets are being buffeted by a number of global events and collapsing oil prices are putting ethanol under pressure. The nearby ethanol futures contract dropped this morning below $1.20/gal, which is the record low close set in November 2018. The contract closed at $1.2229/gal. Of cours...
Oil and Agriculture
An oil war has begun between Saudi Arabia and Russia and its impacts are important for agriculture. Energy products are key inputs, affecting field work costs, fertilizer prices and ultimately marketing. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) had predicted an average oil price in 2020 of arou...