European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather is trending pleasantly warmer after a cool start to the growing season. Temperatures will be above normal for most of western and central Europe this week with rainfall limited to Spain, Italy, and parts of southeast Europe. The weather trend is a welc...
Market Commentary: Hot Weather Leads to Hot Markets
The CBOT finished the week on a high note with funds and speculative traders buying heading into a weekend that is forecast to be hot and dry for the U.S. December corn posted a technical upside breakout while old crop corn, soybeans, and wheat moved towards the high side of their new trading r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Dry Weather; Cattle Collapse on Cyber Security Risks
The CBOT opened sharply higher on Tuesday following a long, holiday weekend that saw U.S. weather forecasts deteriorate significantly. Spring wheat (Minneapolis) futures led the market higher (how many times do you actually get to say that?) as the worsening drought in the northern Plains is pl...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Buying Lifts CBOT; Hog Rally Continues Unfettered
The last trading day of April saw the CBOT open lower and it looked like it would continue the week’s apparent theme of lower trade. Bears’ hopes were quickly dashed, however, as the market rallied starting mid-day and ended sharply higher. July corn settled limit-up and soybeans po...
Market Commentary: Uncertain CBOT Outlook Drives Volatility
CBOT markets pulled back hard overnight and followed through on yesterday’s hook reversals. Overnight trading volume was large, and more than 70,000 July corn contracts traded and 42,000 contracts of July soybeans. The heavy overnight trade came after the preliminary CBOT data showed open...
Right Sized; Russian Meltdown
Right Sized How large should farms be? That has become an issue in Europe, which like the U.S. started as a social issue but is now morphing in the EU into an ecological question. A USDA/ERS study on consolidation in U.S. farms found three factors driving the push to larger scaled operations. T...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe continues to struggle with drought with conditions especially concerning for the UK. Most of western and northern Europe has experienced below normal precipitation over the past month and the current two-week outlook favors rain for southern and southeast Europe only...
What Could Go Wrong?
The unclassified portion of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s latest “Global Trends” report is pollyannish next to what wargamers are theorizing. The report categorizes risks into four categories: demographics, the environment, economics, and technology. On agriculture,...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Posts Limit-Losses; Wheat Bounces Like a Dead Cat; Hogs Rally Sharply Higher
Except for corn, the CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soyoil market plugging to limit-losses and pulling soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures continued to see follow-through selling on yesterday’s technically disastrous trade but posted small gains at the day’s end. Funds w...
Legacy Support; Implausible Sino-Russian Economics; Dual Quality, Not
Legacy Support There are about 15 staple crops from which most calories are derived, and yet public financial support is centered around a relatively small number of these crops. Part of the reason for this is legacy from a period when the food supply was less certain and so governments subsidi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s weather is trending pleasantly warmer after a cool start to the growing season. Temperatures will be above normal for most of western and central Europe this week with rainfall limited to Spain, Italy, and parts of southeast Europe. The weather trend is a welc...
Market Commentary: Hot Weather Leads to Hot Markets
The CBOT finished the week on a high note with funds and speculative traders buying heading into a weekend that is forecast to be hot and dry for the U.S. December corn posted a technical upside breakout while old crop corn, soybeans, and wheat moved towards the high side of their new trading r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Dry Weather; Cattle Collapse on Cyber Security Risks
The CBOT opened sharply higher on Tuesday following a long, holiday weekend that saw U.S. weather forecasts deteriorate significantly. Spring wheat (Minneapolis) futures led the market higher (how many times do you actually get to say that?) as the worsening drought in the northern Plains is pl...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Buying Lifts CBOT; Hog Rally Continues Unfettered
The last trading day of April saw the CBOT open lower and it looked like it would continue the week’s apparent theme of lower trade. Bears’ hopes were quickly dashed, however, as the market rallied starting mid-day and ended sharply higher. July corn settled limit-up and soybeans po...
Market Commentary: Uncertain CBOT Outlook Drives Volatility
CBOT markets pulled back hard overnight and followed through on yesterday’s hook reversals. Overnight trading volume was large, and more than 70,000 July corn contracts traded and 42,000 contracts of July soybeans. The heavy overnight trade came after the preliminary CBOT data showed open...
Right Sized; Russian Meltdown
Right Sized How large should farms be? That has become an issue in Europe, which like the U.S. started as a social issue but is now morphing in the EU into an ecological question. A USDA/ERS study on consolidation in U.S. farms found three factors driving the push to larger scaled operations. T...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe continues to struggle with drought with conditions especially concerning for the UK. Most of western and northern Europe has experienced below normal precipitation over the past month and the current two-week outlook favors rain for southern and southeast Europe only...
What Could Go Wrong?
The unclassified portion of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s latest “Global Trends” report is pollyannish next to what wargamers are theorizing. The report categorizes risks into four categories: demographics, the environment, economics, and technology. On agriculture,...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Posts Limit-Losses; Wheat Bounces Like a Dead Cat; Hogs Rally Sharply Higher
Except for corn, the CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soyoil market plugging to limit-losses and pulling soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures continued to see follow-through selling on yesterday’s technically disastrous trade but posted small gains at the day’s end. Funds w...
Legacy Support; Implausible Sino-Russian Economics; Dual Quality, Not
Legacy Support There are about 15 staple crops from which most calories are derived, and yet public financial support is centered around a relatively small number of these crops. Part of the reason for this is legacy from a period when the food supply was less certain and so governments subsidi...