World Perspectives

Recent Russia Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE

With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW.  Tomorrow will see the release...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE

The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...

softs

Peas Please

As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position

Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...

Policy Quick Hits

Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March.  By that time, Congress needs to pass four appropriations bills, including the agriculture appropriations, as well as the energy and water, military construction and transportat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise

Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price

Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE

With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW.  Tomorrow will see the release...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE

The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...

softs

Peas Please

As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest exporter of peas with a two-thirds market share. But Russia is second with a 12.4 percent market share, the U.S. exports about 9 percent of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position

Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...

Policy Quick Hits

Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March.  By that time, Congress needs to pass four appropriations bills, including the agriculture appropriations, as well as the energy and water, military construction and transportat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise

Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price

Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman roll concluded its fourth day on Monday, which helped drive some of the day’s trade, though roll volume was far below Friday’s...

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