Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did little for the other major ag commodities. Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended slightly higher while wheat sold off sharply headi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed to plant about 1 Mha showing only 17.5 Mha versus 18.1 Mha a year ago. In addition to poor weather conditions, farmers who realized Russia h...
Market Commentary: The Wins of War
Negotiations are ongoing between the UN, Turkey, and Russia for extending the Black Sea grain corridor agreement beyond its scheduled expiration this coming Saturday. The Russians are demanding the removal of Western financial hurdles to their own trade, and the U.S. and EU have reportedly prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower on Fund Selling; Macro Markets Sharply Higher on CPI Data
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday as fund selling and position liquidation accelerated. The November WASDE did not create much of an additional bullish outlook and funds, which were already in a selling mood, decided to exit long positions. Soybeans were the downside leader on COVID-19 con...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchang...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out remains tight for both commodities and should be long-term supportive. Soybeans rallied for the day, as much because of news of 462 KMT of e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Krasnodar area, also set a new wheat production record of 10.7 MMT. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 7 November, Russia produced...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Sharply Lower in Pre-WASDE Trade; Soy Complex Weaker on Profit Taking
It’s Election Day in the U.S. and the day before the November WASDE. Markets tend to trade small ranges before the elections and the USDA’s report, but today’s trade was unusual as corn and wheat, rather than hunkering down, traded wide-ranging days with sharp losses. Fund sel...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex has been the surprising leader of the CBOT during a week that, at its outset, looked like it would feature major rallies in wheat and corn...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN auspices with Turkey being the guarantor of the transaction. While Ukrainians are complaining about terrible delays with Russian inspections a...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did little for the other major ag commodities. Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended slightly higher while wheat sold off sharply headi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian stocks and carryover. Russian Statistics Agency reported that as of 1 November, Russia’s grain stocks are 42.6 MMT, up 31 percent from 2...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.” The missile that hit Poland turned out to possibly be an errant output of Ukrainian air defense. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Serg...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed to plant about 1 Mha showing only 17.5 Mha versus 18.1 Mha a year ago. In addition to poor weather conditions, farmers who realized Russia h...
Market Commentary: The Wins of War
Negotiations are ongoing between the UN, Turkey, and Russia for extending the Black Sea grain corridor agreement beyond its scheduled expiration this coming Saturday. The Russians are demanding the removal of Western financial hurdles to their own trade, and the U.S. and EU have reportedly prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower on Fund Selling; Macro Markets Sharply Higher on CPI Data
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday as fund selling and position liquidation accelerated. The November WASDE did not create much of an additional bullish outlook and funds, which were already in a selling mood, decided to exit long positions. Soybeans were the downside leader on COVID-19 con...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchang...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out remains tight for both commodities and should be long-term supportive. Soybeans rallied for the day, as much because of news of 462 KMT of e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Krasnodar area, also set a new wheat production record of 10.7 MMT. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 7 November, Russia produced...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Sharply Lower in Pre-WASDE Trade; Soy Complex Weaker on Profit Taking
It’s Election Day in the U.S. and the day before the November WASDE. Markets tend to trade small ranges before the elections and the USDA’s report, but today’s trade was unusual as corn and wheat, rather than hunkering down, traded wide-ranging days with sharp losses. Fund sel...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex has been the surprising leader of the CBOT during a week that, at its outset, looked like it would feature major rallies in wheat and corn...