Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a bearish mood on all fronts. Exporters decreased their interest in the Black Sea ports and local currency strengthened thus solidifying the b...
Novel and Magnanimous; Time to Retire; Whole of Government Effort
Novel and Magnanimous Ukraine has 20 MMT of grain that need to be exported over the next three months before the next crop comes off the fields and needs a place to be stored. Without access to its ports, its current export capacity is 1.5 MMT/month. With hoped-for production this summer of an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 percent controlled by Russia. All Ukrainian ports are blocked and vessels loaded earlier cannot move any further. However, the main reason behind...
Geopolitics Rule; Absence Notable; Frontline Agriculture
Geopolitics Rule During the Cold War, U.S. military planners trumped efforts by American agriculture to challenge the trade distorting effects of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). American farmers were told that the CAP is the glue that holds Europe together, and a divided Europe...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennies but remain well off from their highs. USDA’s Export Sales report affirmed the demand for U.S. crops. Old crop wheat sales were high...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additional 1 Mha of planted area. Winter crops, which are planted over 19 Mha), are reportedly in good and satisfactory condition. Oilseeds are forec...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover, a slow realization that Indonesia won’t be able to maintain an export ban on palm oil sent soyoil futures 5 percent lower, a move whic...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in trading. While today’s gains were modest, July soybeans ended the week up 27 cents, while July corn is down 1.5 cents, and July SRW lost 11...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes because it would betray his contention that it is Western sanctions that are causing the food security problem. There was also some positionin...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister indicated the country is talking with the UN on potential food export corridors in the Black Sea, w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Earlier in the season the government was trying to stabilize prices for inputs and banne...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a maximum of 12.25 percent as a measure to control inflation that has been complicated by the Russia/Ukraine “tensions” and relat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a bearish mood on all fronts. Exporters decreased their interest in the Black Sea ports and local currency strengthened thus solidifying the b...
Novel and Magnanimous; Time to Retire; Whole of Government Effort
Novel and Magnanimous Ukraine has 20 MMT of grain that need to be exported over the next three months before the next crop comes off the fields and needs a place to be stored. Without access to its ports, its current export capacity is 1.5 MMT/month. With hoped-for production this summer of an...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 percent controlled by Russia. All Ukrainian ports are blocked and vessels loaded earlier cannot move any further. However, the main reason behind...
Geopolitics Rule; Absence Notable; Frontline Agriculture
Geopolitics Rule During the Cold War, U.S. military planners trumped efforts by American agriculture to challenge the trade distorting effects of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). American farmers were told that the CAP is the glue that holds Europe together, and a divided Europe...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennies but remain well off from their highs. USDA’s Export Sales report affirmed the demand for U.S. crops. Old crop wheat sales were high...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additional 1 Mha of planted area. Winter crops, which are planted over 19 Mha), are reportedly in good and satisfactory condition. Oilseeds are forec...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover, a slow realization that Indonesia won’t be able to maintain an export ban on palm oil sent soyoil futures 5 percent lower, a move whic...