WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Posts Limit-Losses; Wheat Bounces Like a Dead Cat; Hogs Rally Sharply Higher
Except for corn, the CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soyoil market plugging to limit-losses and pulling soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures continued to see follow-through selling on yesterday’s technically disastrous trade but posted small gains at the day’s end. Funds w...
Legacy Support; Implausible Sino-Russian Economics; Dual Quality, Not
Legacy Support There are about 15 staple crops from which most calories are derived, and yet public financial support is centered around a relatively small number of these crops. Part of the reason for this is legacy from a period when the food supply was less certain and so governments subsidi...
King Oil
Maize is often called King Corn because of its dominance in planted production in the U.S. but the real king in terms of price has been vegetable oil. Prices are up 100 percent from just a year ago and are at nose-bleed territory. Ukrainian crude sunflower oil has particularly gotten out ahead...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Au...
Dekulakization
There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle regardless of human desires to the contrary. Historian Merle Fainsod noted that during WWI, large estates in Russia produced enough grain for...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s new export tax scheme has, according to WPI sources, effectively stopped sales for the spring, and particularly new crop positions. The new tax took effect 15 February as well as the 17.5 MMT quota and the floating tax calculation will start 1 April for all ex...
Wheat Volatility
ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...
Transatlantic Dance; Return of That 70’s Show
Transatlantic Dance Brussels and Washington are beginning to work together again. This week the EU acknowledged that America’s concern with the WTO’s appellate process has validity, and President Biden’s USTR decided against using the carousel of mixing up the products current...
Neo-Progs to WTO Rescue; Better Pesticide Plan; Economic Temptation; Communist Economics
Neo-Progs to WTO Rescue The WTO is broken with members unable to find consensus on anything. Agriculture negotiations are said to be in “disarray” with “facilitators having little institutional knowledge for conducting the negotiations.” Efforts to discipline fisheries t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Cold temperatures are forecast for most of western and all of eastern Europe and Ukraine this week while southern Russia sees a slightly warmer trend. The cold weather is increasing the risk of winterkill in winter wheat crops from eastern Europe through Ukraine. Scattered s...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef
During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Posts Limit-Losses; Wheat Bounces Like a Dead Cat; Hogs Rally Sharply Higher
Except for corn, the CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soyoil market plugging to limit-losses and pulling soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures continued to see follow-through selling on yesterday’s technically disastrous trade but posted small gains at the day’s end. Funds w...
Legacy Support; Implausible Sino-Russian Economics; Dual Quality, Not
Legacy Support There are about 15 staple crops from which most calories are derived, and yet public financial support is centered around a relatively small number of these crops. Part of the reason for this is legacy from a period when the food supply was less certain and so governments subsidi...
King Oil
Maize is often called King Corn because of its dominance in planted production in the U.S. but the real king in terms of price has been vegetable oil. Prices are up 100 percent from just a year ago and are at nose-bleed territory. Ukrainian crude sunflower oil has particularly gotten out ahead...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for U.S. supply and demand outlook is largely unchanged. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Au...
Dekulakization
There is a quasi-religion that believes Big Ag is bad and small farms are better, but economics is a system and economies of scale exists as a principle regardless of human desires to the contrary. Historian Merle Fainsod noted that during WWI, large estates in Russia produced enough grain for...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s new export tax scheme has, according to WPI sources, effectively stopped sales for the spring, and particularly new crop positions. The new tax took effect 15 February as well as the 17.5 MMT quota and the floating tax calculation will start 1 April for all ex...
Wheat Volatility
ABARE announced that Australian wheat production will jump in one year a whopping 120 percent to 33.3 MMT based on higher yields. Such annual volatility in wheat output is not unusual for Australia where, like Argentina, the El Nino/La Nina weather cycle can greatly impact agriculture. Even usi...
Transatlantic Dance; Return of That 70’s Show
Transatlantic Dance Brussels and Washington are beginning to work together again. This week the EU acknowledged that America’s concern with the WTO’s appellate process has validity, and President Biden’s USTR decided against using the carousel of mixing up the products current...
Neo-Progs to WTO Rescue; Better Pesticide Plan; Economic Temptation; Communist Economics
Neo-Progs to WTO Rescue The WTO is broken with members unable to find consensus on anything. Agriculture negotiations are said to be in “disarray” with “facilitators having little institutional knowledge for conducting the negotiations.” Efforts to discipline fisheries t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Cold temperatures are forecast for most of western and all of eastern Europe and Ukraine this week while southern Russia sees a slightly warmer trend. The cold weather is increasing the risk of winterkill in winter wheat crops from eastern Europe through Ukraine. Scattered s...