Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid low prices. The Russian government is reportedly considering a temporary halt to shipments in an effort to support local prices. The Russia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Wheat Futures Up 30 Cents on Russia Export Ban Rumors
CBOT and KCBT wheat futures are sharply higher in early morning trade after news broke that Russia may seek to suspend wheat and sunflower oil exports amid low prices. The Russian government is reportedly considering a temporary halt to shipments in an effort to support local prices. The Russia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...