Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained, and limited price action kept values near Tuesday’s closes. Following those rare occasions during the past few months when markets ral...
Market Commentary
Today is Friday the 13th, and the week ended accordingly. Soybeans were down again overnight and continued lower today. Corn joined soybeans, while wheat was independently firm. The news is the same. No trade deals appear to be on the horizon, and that means no speculative buyers are likely yet...
Things to Watch Going Forward
This week’s USDA WASDE and production estimates were not quite as bearish as they might have been for the following reasons: The corn and soybean yield estimates were not changed, but they could be revised in August based on the current excellent crop ratings coupled with a very good-loo...
WASDE Wheat
Projected U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 74 million bushels on increased beginning stocks and higher production. Forecast 2018/19 U.S. wheat production is raised 54 million bushels to 1,881 million. Foreign 2018/19 wheat supplies are decreased 9.3 million tons primarily on lower pr...
War Update – Elites Panic, Others Don’t
U.S. agriculture dislikes being the tip of the spear in Donald Trump’s trade war fight, but the industry’s intermediaries in Washington are far more upset than those in the countryside. This is largely because farmers in rural America voted for Mr. Trump, and they are not as quick t...
Trade Tops Weather
Aside from being the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the 4th of July is traditionally considered to be a key point in the development of spring-planted crops, especially corn. Normally, much of the Midwestern corn crop is headed toward its pollination stage later in the month, which ratchets up...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS It is reported in Egypt that 45,000 MT of Russian wheat were seized from local storage due to infestation. The wheat had entered the country several months ago and was stored near Alexandria on the Mediterranean. It is said to be for private s...
Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2018?
In January 1980, President Carter decided to punish Russia for invading Afghanistan. That action left U.S. grain companies holding sales on the books to Russia for billions of bushels of wheat and corn that they could not ship and had already purchased from farmers. President Carter made all of...
Market Commentary
It is the last full trading day before the sometimes-eventful June planting and quarterly stocks report. Based on the average trade estimates of acreage and stocks, tomorrow’s reports are viewed as a quiet affair. Corn and soybean acres are expected to be slightly higher than the March nu...
No NAFTA Yet Either
Markets have been obsessed with the failure of the U.S. and China to reach any sort of agreement regarding their trade dispute. In fact, it’s not even about reaching a deal at this point. Instead, it is more about some sign, however small, that there is even any sort of dialogue taking pl...
Market Commentary
After trade war fears sank grain and soy futures yesterday, the overnight session opened cautiously. Prices edged a bit higher, but trading was tentative and volume was low. Yesterday’s emotional lashing left markets in a highly oversold state. However, without a signal that further discu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoline (depending on the grade) and 60 percent for home cooking gas. This announcement was made during the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to avoid any org...
Market Commentary
After featuring active trade and higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, grain and soybean markets paused to catch their breath today. Volume was restrained, and limited price action kept values near Tuesday’s closes. Following those rare occasions during the past few months when markets ral...
Market Commentary
Today is Friday the 13th, and the week ended accordingly. Soybeans were down again overnight and continued lower today. Corn joined soybeans, while wheat was independently firm. The news is the same. No trade deals appear to be on the horizon, and that means no speculative buyers are likely yet...
Things to Watch Going Forward
This week’s USDA WASDE and production estimates were not quite as bearish as they might have been for the following reasons: The corn and soybean yield estimates were not changed, but they could be revised in August based on the current excellent crop ratings coupled with a very good-loo...
WASDE Wheat
Projected U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 74 million bushels on increased beginning stocks and higher production. Forecast 2018/19 U.S. wheat production is raised 54 million bushels to 1,881 million. Foreign 2018/19 wheat supplies are decreased 9.3 million tons primarily on lower pr...
War Update – Elites Panic, Others Don’t
U.S. agriculture dislikes being the tip of the spear in Donald Trump’s trade war fight, but the industry’s intermediaries in Washington are far more upset than those in the countryside. This is largely because farmers in rural America voted for Mr. Trump, and they are not as quick t...
Trade Tops Weather
Aside from being the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the 4th of July is traditionally considered to be a key point in the development of spring-planted crops, especially corn. Normally, much of the Midwestern corn crop is headed toward its pollination stage later in the month, which ratchets up...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS It is reported in Egypt that 45,000 MT of Russian wheat were seized from local storage due to infestation. The wheat had entered the country several months ago and was stored near Alexandria on the Mediterranean. It is said to be for private s...
Carter in 1980 and Trump in 2018?
In January 1980, President Carter decided to punish Russia for invading Afghanistan. That action left U.S. grain companies holding sales on the books to Russia for billions of bushels of wheat and corn that they could not ship and had already purchased from farmers. President Carter made all of...
Market Commentary
It is the last full trading day before the sometimes-eventful June planting and quarterly stocks report. Based on the average trade estimates of acreage and stocks, tomorrow’s reports are viewed as a quiet affair. Corn and soybean acres are expected to be slightly higher than the March nu...
No NAFTA Yet Either
Markets have been obsessed with the failure of the U.S. and China to reach any sort of agreement regarding their trade dispute. In fact, it’s not even about reaching a deal at this point. Instead, it is more about some sign, however small, that there is even any sort of dialogue taking pl...
Market Commentary
After trade war fears sank grain and soy futures yesterday, the overnight session opened cautiously. Prices edged a bit higher, but trading was tentative and volume was low. Yesterday’s emotional lashing left markets in a highly oversold state. However, without a signal that further discu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS As part of its budget control measures, Egypt has announced price increases of 35-40 percent for gasoline (depending on the grade) and 60 percent for home cooking gas. This announcement was made during the Eid Al-Fitr holidays to avoid any org...