GOOD MORNING,

The markets were lower overnight as we cap off a week that contained a rally, and will end with good harvest weather across the heart of the Midwest.  Soyoil futures encountered its ups and downs, but it was mostly lower yesterday on the back of weaker energies and digestion of the negative NOPA report this week.  Bean prices follow a still ever-trending lower soyoil market in the PM session.  

Basis levels and cash prices are firm, with spreads recently narrowing. Bean spreads are firming this morning, corn spreads a touch weaker.  Choppy trade is keeping most traders close to home, doing only what they need to do.  End-users sit below the market, while selling on rallies most entices recent bulls wanting to book a profit.  There will be more position -squaring as well as we draw close to the Sep. 30 quarterly stocks report, which is always good for a few fireworks.  

WEATHER

--Weather is bearish, as clear and dry conditions are going to speed harvest this weekend.  The 11/15 day outlook calls for mapt to turn to below normal temperatures for a change with only slight chances of rainfall here and there.

--More rains in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top grain producing state, has led to optimistic projections.  La Nina is projected down the road for SA, but they have received enough rain to get up and planting. 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Russia's IKAR cut its forecast for Russia's 2021 wheat crop to 74/75 mmt due to lower production in several regions.  IN August, IKAR cut its forecast to 77 mmt.  

China's oil consumption is expected to peak around 2026 at an estimated 16 mln bbls/day, and that of natural gas by 2040.

Russia will set the grain export taxes for Sep. 22-28, the Ag ministry announced.  They lowered the corn export tax to $47.80/mt from $49.00/mt., and wheat from to $50.90/mt from $52.50/mt. 

Ukraine's wheat harvest jumped by 33% to 33 mmt, the Age ministry announced.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  7-9 lower

meal:  1.20-1.50 lower

soyoil:  40-50 pts lower

corn:  1 lower

wheat:  1 1/2-2 higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Crude oil trading up to $72.72/barrel, with the US dollar trending lower to 98.76.  Stocks are down 54 pts.

TECH TALK

• The lower overnight markets now tend to point towards markets that will trend in a large sideways chop.  November beans could not hold above the $13.00 level again, but downside follow-through is also lacking.  Would not get too married to either side here, as $12.70 could hold the downside, $13.20 the top.  
• December meal prices are congesting from $340.00-$350.00, but there could be another test of the recent lows as this market has failed to hold many of the recent rallies.  
• December soyoil prices are surprisingly weak, reversing from the high of 5875c to trade back towards 55c.  
• The December corn chart now appears to be in the process of establishing value levels, which is $5.00 low end to $5.45 top.  A pullback towards $5.10/$5.15 could also be a good buying, pricing, or bargain - hunting opportunity, with the 200 day as very strong support at $5.08.  
• December wheat prices also appear ready to establish a trading range, with solid support at $7.01/$7.02, which has been the swing point in a $6.80-$7.20 range.  Look to likely stay this way for a while.

DECEMBER SOYOIL

Prices are trending sideways from 55c to 60c.  The market hit trendline resistance as shown below at 5875c, and now the low of 55c could be approaching fast.  Funds hold the largest long position here, hence the profit-taking.  All in all, would still own deep pullbacks in this market, as the chart, while lower, is not in bearish territory, as is meal.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, North America