World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Progress Report Tests Range Lows

GOOD MORNING,

Prices were lower for most of the markets as crop progress ratings improved more than expected, and corn and beans entered a mostly negative time seasonal.  Traders look to see if demand can shore up a bottom.   Beans saw a 10th session of USDA announcements yesterday with spreads continuing to firm into new highs this AM.    

First notice day is Friday for August futures.  There are 2,753 soyoil receipts, 511 meal, and zero beans.   

WEATHER

Soaking rains moved across central Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.  Temperatures are cooler, below average for the end of July, which has proved to be a hot but wet month.  Fields in North Dakota have too much rainfall while Nebraska and Ohio have not received enough.  More scattered rainfall over the next few weeks should pretty much make the corn crop, while benefiting beans.  

REPORTS

Crop Progress:  Gist of report bearish with crops improving more than expected for corn/beans.  Iowa is the state showing the largest declines vs. improvements in Mo., Ill., Neb., Kansas, and Ohio.

Beans:  72% good/excellent, up 3%.  Blooming:  76% vs. 69% week ago.  Setting pods:  43% vs. 25% week ago.

Corn:  72% good/excellent, up 3%. Silking:  82% vs. 59% week ago.  Dough stage:  22% vs. 9% week ago. 

Winter Wheat:  81% harvested vs. trade estimate of 83% and vs. 74% week ago.

Spring Wheat:  70% good/excellent vs. 68% week ago

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Brazil's Arc Mercosul is forecasting the 20/21 Brazilian bean crop at 129.15 mmt, up 3.4% vs. year ago and a new record.   The weaker Brazilian Real continues to encourage expansion as it represents a favorable exchange rate to the farmer.  Bean acreage is projected at 38.43 mln hectares, up 3.8% vs. year ago, and the fastest acreage increase since 2014/15.  

Brazil's Economics Ministry forecast accumulated bean exports through the end of July at 8.7 mmt, an average daily rate of 485,000 mt vs. 323,600 mt /day year ago.

BUSINESS

Egypt tendered for wheat after the close for Sep. 1-10 shipment for 55/60 mt.  So far, the lowest offer is Russian wheat.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  10-12 lower

meal:  3.00-3.40 lower

soyoil:  30-40 lower

corn:  3 1/2-4 lower

wheat:  1/2-1 lower

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Higher crude at $41.93/barrel and a continuing weaker US dollar which trades down to 93.49.  The Dow is down 130 pts.  

TECH TALK

  • The markets are in trading ranges, and with some testing recent lows via the crop progress report which was better than expected.  
  • December corn trades down to the lower end of its range to $3.30.  Returning often to recent lows implies that they get violated, and with today's turn lower a new line of resistance forms from $3.40 down towards $3.37.  Trendline support sits just below $3.30 at $3.28, and once again will be interesting if today's trade can take a stab at moving prices under this key level of support.  
  • Sep. wheat moves sideways with the 100-day moving average still in place at $5.23 offering up support.  Look to probably maintain trade from $5.23 up to $5.35, and if short would probably cover something in on today's break.  
  • November beans have key support at $8.83, and funds are long.  The market is taking corrective action after its inability to sustain a rally over $9.00.   The $8.83 to $8.85 level has been a strong market and therefore if short would cover or try the long side.  
  • December soyoil finally hits its target of 2960c and would expect to see prices firm from here.  However, any break of this key level of support opens the door to target 29c.  If short, would elect to cover some in at todays' low in Dec. soyoil as 2960c has been a previous market top, and now a new bottom.  
  • December meal prices advanced to test trendline resistance at $303.50, with $298.00 as both trendline support as well as the 100-day moving average.  The market retains its sideways trade from $290.00-$308.00, but given that soyoil is at the bottom of corrective price action and meal at the top would soon expect to see a turn for both markets.

NOVEMBER BEANS

Overall direction is sideways, and there is a trading range that extends from $8.70-$9.10.  Prices break to trendline support in corrective price action with today's low of $8.85 a key level of support.   The market has so far bounced off $8.85 as shorts cover and new longs hop on board.  The 100-day moving average at $8.68 1/2 shows up as the lowest level of support, though we may not get there.  Price congestion is heavy from $8.72-$8.75.  If short and we go there, would cover something in or try the long side of this range-bound market.  Bottom line is that this market has been technically sound, and if short would scale down cover from $8.75-$8.85.  

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