Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the previous week’s 189,000-contract reduction. The soy complex and corn accounted for most of the retreat, although funds were net sellers across every major ag commodity. That indicates a broad-based switch in trader mentality to a bearish regime, with wheat and lean hog shorts growing as long positions in grain, oilseed, and cattle continue to shrink. Corn saw net fund selling...
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
Key Takeaways: WPI’s forecasts call for physical U.S. soybean crushing margins to weaken over the next four months and average $4.44/bushel by late February, while CBOT futures margins should rise modestly to about $2.40/bushel. A key catalyst for this is the expectation that U.S...
Regional News Black Sea trade dynamics remain central to European wheat and corn pricing, with the reported 26 percent increase in Ukraine’s October grain shipments adding pressure to markets. Concurrently, markets are waiting for the scheduled trilateral peace talks between the U.S...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.