Moving the Goal Posts China is a critical demand driver for U.S. soybean farmers and they rallied when the White House announced on Halloween that China had committed to buying 12 MMT of soybeans by year’s end, and then 25 MMT over the coming three years. There were ample skeptics at the time. After all, China had just accelerated its November purchases of Brazilian soybeans by 67 percent, a period typically dominated by U.S. suppliers. The economics of China’s domestic prices, storage capacity and ship lineups all undermined the political assertion that Beijing would now suddenly pile on another 12 MMT of American soybeans.
China’s initial purchase of 3-4 MMT of U.S. soybeans helped stall an implosion in the market...
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
Key Takeaways: The agricultural trade surplus has become a sizable deficit: the balance swung from a $40.1 billion surplus in 2011 to a $40.7 billion deficit in 2025. Imports kept growing while exports lost momentum: between 2020 and 2025, agricultural imports increased 45 percent, compa...
What You Need to Know Today: New World screwworm is back in the headlines after new cases were found in a hunter-harvested elk in Texas and a beef cow in New Mexico. The detection in wildlife could further complicate containment efforts, as implementing effective biosecurity measures is consid...
Key Takeaways: Demand and capacity decide where milk growth lands. Italian cheese is up 4.2 percent in 2026, and milk output is growing fastest in Kansas, South Dakota and Texas, where the new plants are located. Price spreads decide where the marginal milk goes. The Class IV premium over Clas...
