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Cotton Beats Wheat

There is much consternation over the fact that global stocks-to-use in wheat is down to 12.5 percent and as a result, the price of the March SRW contract is up 65 percent. Yet the price on the December cotton contract is up 120 percent from its low. Cotton is not essential for the food supply and the global stocks-to-use is over 70 percent, which is higher than it was just a few years ago. Instead, what is happening in the cotton market is politics. Major fashion retailers will not buy cotton from Xinjiang Province in China out of fear of a consumer backlash on behalf of the oppressed Uyghur people. China’s stocks-to-use for cotton is over 90 percent but purchasers have instead been waiting for a late harvested U.S. crop and where...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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