World Perspectives

COVID-19 Calculations; Trade Policy Shorts

COVID-19 Calculations Equities have now plunged two days in a row over the coronavirus, but commodities fought back today rather than overreact. The COVID-19 virus is said to have put Italy close to recession, though German businesses are said to still be positive. That is the problem with current risk calculations – the WHO says infections have plateaued in China and it is still not a global pandemic, but that one cannot be ruled out.  The economic impact is being felt. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin says China will still meet its Phase One purchasing commitments, but Goldman Sachs cut U.S. Q1 growth to 1.2 percent and some analysts have cut China’s growth to 4.5 percent in Q1 and 5.4 percent for the year. Argentina sa...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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