World Perspectives
livestock

Cow-Calf Margins Down from July but Still Imply Herd Rebuilding

Since WPI’s July update on cow-calf margins, expected 2024 returns for producers have shifted lower but remain well above year-ago values and near record highs. WPI’s models indicate that revenue for the “average” Southern Plains (i.e., Kansas) cow-calf operation will hit $1,626/cow-unit this year, which would be an all-time high if realized. That forecast is down $125/cow-unit from our July outlook due to the late-summer correction in feeder cattle prices and a recent downturn in cull cow values. The revenue forecast is also 17 percent lower than what was predicted in September 2023 but decreases in feed and other costs have pushed total profitability higher.  One reason the revenue forecasts have been so impr...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support

Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...

Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?

The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the first such rematch since 1956 (only the seventh time in history and only the second time since 1900). However, President Biden stepped down...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close.  Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support

Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...

Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?

The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the first such rematch since 1956 (only the seventh time in history and only the second time since 1900). However, President Biden stepped down...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close.  Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...

softs

Going up with a Bang

A futures contract that persistently moves up or down by just a penny or two each day imposes its own burden on the market. While speculators are said to prosper from volatility, and sellers want higher prices and buyers prefer them lower, everyone prefers a story. Apparently, the cotton market...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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