World Perspectives
biofuel

Farm Bill and Ethanol in Congress’s Closing Stretch

The final draft of the 2018 Farm Bill conference agreement is likely to be released tomorrow, and a final vote could take place as soon as Wednesday (12 December). Focus will be centered on the following key items and whether the final text delivers the anticipated changes: Margin Protection Program (MPP) - The terms of coverage for milk income-over-feed cost margins are expected to be more generous. Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) - The acreage enrollment cap is expected to be raised to 27 million acres from the current 24 million acres (22.64 million acres were enrolled this year with 1.5 million acres expired in October), a compromise between the House bill’s expansion to 29 million acres and the Senate bill’s increase...

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Legs of War; No Cigar

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

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equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.135/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $322/short ton, down $2.3 from...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

feed-grains

Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown

USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of intended planting has changed. Consider, 1 March planting intentions had indicated there would be 92.8 million acres of corn this year. That...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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