World Perspectives
wheat

Funds Slam the Markets

Last week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report confirmed that funds (i.e., managed money) continued to expand their short positions in corn, soybeans, soymeal and wheat to either record-large levels or very nearly so. They had very little opposition to pressing the short side before last Friday’s USDA WASDE, and that report simply added a little more fuel to the short-side fire by reducing the U.S. wheat and corn export forecasts. The wheat market has been especially bearish over the last month. The Chicago March wheat contract has declined nearly a $1.00/bushel since 14 February. Chicago wheat futures are now within 10-20 cents/bushel of the prices they’ve traded at since 2010, which is a remarkable collapse no matter...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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