World Perspectives
soy-oilseeds

Gambling on Weather and Trade

Reports are indicating that as part of the trade war remedy, China is offering to boost its importation of U.S.-origin soybeans to 30 MMT, from the current reported level of 20 MMT. The value of the extra tonnage is said to be around $325/MT.  Even before the trade war, the U.S. share of China’s soybean import market had fallen from nearly 40 percent five years ago to 26.8 percent in 2018. It sold just 16 percent of the soybeans imported by China during this past marketing year. If actually consummated, it would have significant market impact, which is why some risk has come off as traders position for a deal. But it is a huge gamble. The Chinese say they are not willing to concede on major demands, and President Trump says he...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.34/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, up $1.7 from...

The Evolving Trading System; CAP’s Fault; Fooled Foodies

The Evolving Trading System WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo laments that people are forgetting the importance of a rule-based system of economic cooperation. Former Clinton Administration trade negotiator Harry Broadman laments that under President Trump, the U.S. has become more lik...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trading at the CBOT today was muted with traders mostly evening positions, taking some profits, and generally not adding to or subtracting from risk ahead of the weekend. Fundamental news was light as well, except for forecasts that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will create above-avera...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.34/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 19 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, up $1.7 from...

The Evolving Trading System; CAP’s Fault; Fooled Foodies

The Evolving Trading System WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo laments that people are forgetting the importance of a rule-based system of economic cooperation. Former Clinton Administration trade negotiator Harry Broadman laments that under President Trump, the U.S. has become more lik...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trading at the CBOT today was muted with traders mostly evening positions, taking some profits, and generally not adding to or subtracting from risk ahead of the weekend. Fundamental news was light as well, except for forecasts that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will create above-avera...

wheat

Rise in Wheat Futures

Chicago wheat futures have been climbing for the past few weeks based on still somewhat speculative supply losses due to adverse weather conditions and solid demand. Futures literally look forward while USDA’s strength is in the present and past. Historically, the stocks to use ratio and...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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