Key Takeaways:

The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptions, trade preferences, implementation dates, and shifts in suppliers determine the average duties assessed on actual imports. Higher costs are clearer than trade-balance gains: research links tariffs to higher U.S. prices, but higher duties alone do not establish that agricultural imports or the trade deficit declined because of them.

How Effective are Tariffs on U.S. Food and Ag Imports?   Last week’s review of the U.S. agricultural...