USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report on 21 July with a placement number that was a shocker: 1.77 million head or 116 percent of June 2016’s placements. Expectations were that placements in feed yards of 1,000 head or more capacity would be 105.9 percent of the year-ago level. Indeed, total placements in June were the highest recorded for that month in 11 years. The report had a bearish impact across the board for futures contracts as live cattle, feeder cattle and even lean hog contracts all closed lower today.For context, June had the lowest monthly placements of the past three years at 1.71 million head...
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.