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Market Commentary

Markets were lower overnight, and the expectation was for more of the same when the sun rose but politics and fundamentals combined to give Chicago a shot in the arm. The fundamental change included the largest corn export sales in a long time, and a peace offering to China by the White House piled on the good mood. Fundamentals have made for dull markets for a while, but the wild card has been whether positive policy outcomes ever achieve fruition.  USMCA is now in the bank but a U.S. – China deal must still be considered talk since it has failed before. There is no actual agreement, so it was another day of buying the rumor. This means there will be a bloodbath come Monday if suddenly tariffs are back on the table. It is belie...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Priced to Sell

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

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Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Priced to Sell

GOOD MORNING, Prices continued to work lower post beneficial crop progress numbers.  Rising domestic and international crop estimates for wheat, (Russia and Australia), pushed prices lower.  Egypt tendered for 60,000 mt of mill grade wheat for Sep 11-30 shipment. Large yield ideas for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

What is the Exit Strategy for Ad Hoc Farm Payments?

The 2018 farm bill was signed into law in December of that year and implementing rules were rolled out through 2019. The major crop programs, like ARC and PLC for example, saw participation elections and signups in the fall of 2019 and CRP general sign up began in December 2019. These and other...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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