General Comments Traders appear to have gone into month-end mode by organizing and squaring up some of their positions. Potential evidence for that assumption seems to be displayed in various spreads. The collapse of the old/new crop spreads for both corn and soybeans implies that there is transition out of established positions. In the last couple of weeks or so, the difference between July and December corn declined from more than 98 cents on 18 May to almost 33 cents today; the difference between July and November soybeans has narrowed from $1.31 on 17 May to less than 70 cents today. Each of these actions indicate that if there is going to be a weather-related rally, it will be led by new crop.The spread between November soybeans/Dec...
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
As predicted, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the last meeting before the midterm elections, likely in part because of the election (see WPI 19 October and 22 September). The decision comes at the tail end of a midterm election cycle that has been marked by the two parties campaigning...
Key Takeaways: WPI’s new EU rapeseed crushing margin models point to weaker processing returns over the next four months due to higher rapeseed procurement costs and weaker product values. Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.