World Perspectives
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Market Commentary: Corn Touches $6.30 and Wheat Hits Trendline; New Highs for Hogs

The CBOT saw the continued influence of fund managers and investors looking to bull spread commodities against equities, as well as the impact of (continually) escalating tensions between Russia and everyone else. Wheat futures rallied 15+ cents again Tuesday with short covering accelerating as the rally puts more and more positions underwater. What remains a mystery is how much long-side buying interest there is in wheat futures. Typically, fund managers love to be long wheat, especially in inflationary or “commodity boom” cycles, but the extremely volatile and unpredictable nature of Black Sea tensions may be causing risk managers to limit exposure. Corn futures rose sharply on Tuesday and posted fresh rally highs before slipp...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength

The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...

Hecho en Mexico; Radical for Small; Impeach Tai?

Hecho en Mexico While outgoing Mexican president and populist AMLO tries to shutdown American farmers, the U.S. government just keeps giving to Mexico. The de minimis duty is about to go away. The personal free import allowance is complex. Most American citizens reentering the country think of...

feed-grains

Squeeze on White Corn

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength

The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...

Hecho en Mexico; Radical for Small; Impeach Tai?

Hecho en Mexico While outgoing Mexican president and populist AMLO tries to shutdown American farmers, the U.S. government just keeps giving to Mexico. The de minimis duty is about to go away. The personal free import allowance is complex. Most American citizens reentering the country think of...

feed-grains

Squeeze on White Corn

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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