World Perspectives
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Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Brazil  The Brazilian corn production estimates look poor indeed. The combination of intense drought and recent frost/freeze events caused huge, irreversible damage to the crop. The most optimistic estimate right now is a total crop of 93 MMT (of which 67 MMT is attributed to the safrinha crop) and the most pessimistic is 83 MMT (with 57 MMT of safrinha production). The range in export estimates is similarly wide between 19 and 25 MMT.   Brazil’s harvest is moving slowly and is well behind the normal pace. Only 15 percent is harvested so far, so it’s too early to make definitive conclusions about yields and crop size. As the harvest moves faster, the market will get a better assessment of production potent...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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