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Natural Gas and Fertilizer Outlook

With the cold weather season coming, natural gas storage is at long-term lows. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) October Short-Term Energy Outlook is forecasting natural gas inventories at 3,263 billion cubic feet (Bcf) by the end of the month. That would be the lowest end-of-October cumulative inventory since 2005. The drawdown is attributed to cold weather during the first half of the year.  Temperatures in April were the lowest for the month in more than 20 years, which delayed the natural storage gas refill season by about a month. That came after unusually large drawdowns in in a record-cold January, pushing storage to below the five-year average for most of the summer. Recent late season weekly...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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