World Perspectives
soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soybeans; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Little Time for U.S. Soy Sales

China’s Soybean Output Estimated at 18.1 MMT China’s Ministry of Agriculture and rural Affairs this week raised its forecast for that country’s soybean production to 18.1 MMT. USDA also used that forecast in Tuesday’s WASDE report. The USDA forecast in November was 17.1 MMT. USDA estimates China produced 15.9 MMT of soybeans in 2018. The Chinese government made a major push to get its farmers to plant and produce more soybeans this year as part of an effort to reduce its imports of soybeans. However, the effort only yielded a 13.8 percent increase in production. A major reason for the increase not being greater was average soybean yields in China. USDA estimates the average soybean yield in China in 2019 was 1.946...

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Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

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What is the Exit Strategy for Ad Hoc Farm Payments?

The 2018 farm bill was signed into law in December of that year and implementing rules were rolled out through 2019. The major crop programs, like ARC and PLC for example, saw participation elections and signups in the fall of 2019 and CRP general sign up began in December 2019. These and other...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

What is the Exit Strategy for Ad Hoc Farm Payments?

The 2018 farm bill was signed into law in December of that year and implementing rules were rolled out through 2019. The major crop programs, like ARC and PLC for example, saw participation elections and signups in the fall of 2019 and CRP general sign up began in December 2019. These and other...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2025/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.8175/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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