THE OPEN
November beans: 6 1/2 higher
December meal; 3.90 higher
December soyoil: 15 higher
December corn: 1 higher
December wheat: 1 1/2 lower
The markets turned higher after the start of the trading session with beans in the lead again. December soyoil joined beans, making another new for the trading range. Higher crude created another wave of fund buying, with beans making new ctr highs. Chinese pricing and fund buying activity accelerated gains over again after Nov. prices topped $10.00.
SOY
- The soy complex opened as called with more fund buying activity from the start of the trading session on more business announcements this morning. Funds continue to follow the strong trend for beans and soyoil, both of which posted new highs within the first few hours of trade.
- Meal prices also followed higher trade, finding slightly more chart resistance as opposed to soyoil. However, meal spreads were strong with Dec/March trading into $1.50 from $2.50.
- Headline sources stated that Algeria was tendering for meal for first half October shipment. Today's price bounce-back over $10.00 November did find better bean movement, with some holding for still higher targets as new ctr highs are posted. Nov/Jan beans were steady trading from 3 3/4c to 4 3/4c, while Jan/March traded to a 1c inverse.
- December soyoil futures cleared 3471c to trade to new highs of 3497c, which is closer to the 35c target. November oilshare traded back over 35.0% to 35.23%. Strong energy prices courtesy of Sally helped soyoil to remain firm. In the EIA report, crude stocks were down 6.5 mln with production up 900K.
GRAINS
- Wheat and corn prices traded higher on the day trying to follow the path of the soy complex. Egypt's tender was awarded to Russia and Poland, which sent prices into the red. Wheat prices are still failing on rallies, while corn remains well supported.
- The Dec wheat/corn spread traded to 1.69 1/2c from 1.74 1/2c. Nearby corn spread action remained firm with Dec/March trading into 19 1/2c from 22 1/4c. The EIA ethanol report was net supportive for ethanol, showing a surprise stocks draw and a larger down-tick in production.
- Ethanol production declined by 1.5% to 936,000 bbls/day, which would consume 9.4 bln bu of corn. Inventories fell 1% to 832 mln glns, which is close to the lows of the year.
- More buy bean/sell corn trade was noted, and weaker wheat prices tended to keep a lid on corn for much of the day.
AT MIDDAY THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
hi lo
November beans: 14 higher 10.12 1/4 9.85 ***new ctr high
December meal: 5.00 higher 526.30 317.90
December soyoil: 52 higher 3497 3397
December corn: 2 1/2 higher 3.69 1/2 3.61 3/4
December wheat: 1 higher 5.43 5.33 1/4
November canola: 5.60 higher 527.90 518.90
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Stocks opened 90 pts higher, and are up 190 pts at midday. The US dollar trades to 92.78 as big money buys energy/sells the currency. Crude trades up to $39.95/barrel.
CLOSING COMMENTS
The bull market run continues with brief setbacks continuing to hold for higher trade. Heads up that November beans are posting an outside day of trade so far, so a mid-range or low-end settlement would not be constructive. However, if Nov beans close over $10.00 would look for further target highs overhead at $10.20, with overbot markets still in tow. With new business at hand, fund pricing and new buying activity continues to keep the ball rolling to the upside.
The wheat market remains a sideways trade and a follower to the other markets. Again, strong markets bounce higher, and that is what we see in soyoil and beans, both of which remain extremely overbot. With still new highs today, would think about taking a profit and keeping the rest. Upper targets for Nov beans is still $10.20, with $10.35 at the highest extreme. A close over 35c Dec soyoil targets 3550c. Dec corn has to prove it can clear $3.70, but a strong close in beans will take care of that. Settlement for Dec. corn over $3.70 targets $3.77/$3.78.
Have a good evening...........
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