THE OPEN

May beans: 2 lower

May meal:  1.20 lower

May soyoil:  5 lower

May corn:  6 3/4 higher

May wheat:  7 3/4 higher

The markets opened as called with a sharp rally in corn leading the way higher for other markets to do much the same.  Wheat futures ran more shorts out of the market as prices rose responding to ongoing concerns over dryness in the US northern plains, and the fact that HRW could be an alternative to high priced corn for cattle feeders.  Bean trade was higher tagging along with corn prices, but the cancellation of beans for old crop by China seemed to weigh on the market.  

SOY

• The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher oilshare, as traders once again bot soyoil/sold meal.   July oilshare trades to 56c/bu while oil share trades to 38.39%.   The soy complex trade continues mixed with meal leading to the downside, with May meal once again failing against critical key resistance at $410.00 to $411.00.  
• Meal spreads were weak, with the May/July trading out to $3.30 carry as the Goldman Roll begins, and the July/Dec inverse weakening back to $14.90 from a morning high at $18.70.  May beans and soyoil are followers today of firmer grains, but when left to its own seem to find pressure.  Bean spreads find support at recent low with July/Nov trading down to 1.30 1/2c from 1.41 3/4c.  May/July bean inverse firmed to 7 1/4c from 5 1/4c.   Soyoil prices remain a choppy affair, trending in around 53c in a 52c-54c trading range.  
• The inability to hold higher trade is troubling but would still expect lower levels to find adequate support for still higher trading levels.  
• In terms of the export sales picture, old crop bean combined sales plus shipments now totals 2.232 bln bu, which represents 99% of the projected 2.250 bln bu program for the export year vs. the 5-year average of 90%.  Egypt tendered for 3,000 mt of soyoil and 2,000 of sunflower for the May 15-20 time slot. 

GRAINS

• The markets opened on a strong technical note with more buying in corn taking prices up towards the new ctr highs of $5.85 in May placed on the report day.  
• December corn sets a new contract high at $4.93 3/4, with $5.00 tough resistance to climb over.  Technically, corn prices had cleared tough resistance opening the door for a price rebound.  Corn continues to see support from solid demand and more dryness in Brazil's Safrinha areas.    Corn demand still remains vibrant; As of April 1, the US sold 2.617 bln bu of corn for export for 20/21, slightly more than the USDA forecast of 2.6 bln bu.  
• Wheat prices trade higher on short-covering, tech buying, and adding back some weather premium with dryness in the northern and southern plains. KC wheat futures continue to rebound off the lows of $5.53/$5.55, leading over Chicago prices, but may stop at $5.80/$5.85 resistance. May Chicago wheat trades close to major resistance at $6.32, and over previous resistance tops of $6.25.   Spreads were firm with May/July corn inverting back to a high of 19c from morning low of 14 1/4c, and July/Dec trading back up to 70 1/2c from 60c.    

AT 12:00 THE MARKET IS AS FOLLOWS:

                                                    HI                           LO

May beans:  4 higher               14.22 1/2               14.04 1/2

May meal:  2.00 lower              410.30                   406.10

May soyoil:  43 higher             53.58                     52.58

May corn:  19 higher                5.82                       5.59 1/4

May wheat:  12 higher              5.31 1/2                6.16

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The Dow was down 14 pts in the early going but turned higher during the session, up 10 pts.   The US dollar trades down to 92.07 while crude is in the red with a $58.82/barrel low.  At midday the stock market is up 20 pts. 

CLOSING COMMENTS

The price action in corn suggests that traders are expecting a bullish report.  Funds are buying anew into the report, and farmers are in the fields as prices rally into very light hedge pressure.  Traders are anticipating a neutral to bullish event for beans and corn, neutral for wheat.  Markets are sideways but funds remain long and will defend.  Farmers are planting what they can and therefore hedging could remain light.  Given that prices have still been close to recent contract highs, a bullish report could result in higher highs still.  Technically bulls still have the edge, except where wheat charts are concerned.  

Weather still seems benign for April and could lead to on-time planting.  But there are areas of the country that are not starting out in optimal conditions, namely parts of the western Corn Belt.  It may up to the eastern Corn Belt to have an ideal growing season given the drought monitor outlook for the moment.   

Key support has now moved in these markets, and technically the charts are saying these could be trading range lows in markets that could work higher:

December corn:  $4.80, but could work over $5.00 or more

November beans:  $12.45, but could work up to $13.25/$13.50

Until prices close under this level, have to price, cover a short, or own for the short term.  

Have a good evening...........

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America