THE OPEN
November beans: 6 1/2 higher
December meal: .10 higher
December soyoil: 59 higher
December corn: 3/4 higher
December wheat: 1/2 higher
The key feature of the morning was that of continued higher oilshare, as meal prices turned red and soyoil prices sprinted to new trading range highs. Wheat prices were mixed at the open, but once again found buying interest at key moving averages. Strong Chinese markets underpinned US markets at the open, as funds were noted buyers.
At 10:00 export inspections are as follows:
beans: 1.283,936 mt vs. 1,396,077 week ago. (vs. an expected 1,050,000 mt)
corn: 878,907 mt vs. 887,889 mt week ago (vs. an expected 700,000 mt)
wheat: 637,226 mt 699,310 mt week ago (vs. an expected 675,000 mt)
Inspections were at the upper end of trade expectations, and supportive for higher values.
SOY
- The soy complex traded mixed, with November oilshare trading to 35.21% as December soyoil continued to trade to new highs for the move up. December meal prices entered technical consolidation after gapping higher at the start of the trading session, to fill that gap with trade below into the morning hour.
- November crush traded to 76.73c/bu. November beans pushed over the $10.00 level as a few bulls decided to book profits. However, given the strength of the bean market net selling pressure was not there to take prices much lower for much of the trading session.
- December soyoil prices continued to surge throughout the session following sharply higher palm oil prices. Funds continue to own beans and meal on technical merit alone.
- Bean spreads on the other hand were a touch weaker, with Nov/Jan trading out to 4c from highs of 2 3/4c, while Jan/March traded from a 3 1/4c inverse down to 1 1/2c. Dec/March meal traded from .80 out to $2.50. By midday prices continued to congest around the $10.00 level, which was net constructive for price action.
GRAINS
- Wheat and corn prices started the day on the plus side with wheat futures tacking on gains after the open.
- December corn stayed close to overnight trading range highs as early sellers turned buyers. Traders seemed cautious even though the corn sales announcement to China was positive.
- Wheat prices were supported by rising world premiums and dry weather in other parts of the world.
- Ukraine corn harvest for corn has started with early results proving that dryness contributed to possible lower production estimates.
- Corn spreads were a touch on the wider side with Dec/Dec trading out to 21 1/2c while Dec/March traded from 9cc to 9 3/4c. Buy wheat/sell corn trade was noted with better commercial selling noted for Dec corn at the $3.70 level.
AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
HI LO
Nov beans: 4 higher 10.08 3/4 9.96
Dec meal: 1.40 lower 328.00 321.30
Dec soyoil: 60 higher 3457 3347
Dec corn: 1/4 lower 3.71 3.67 1/4
Dec wheat: 3 higher 5.47 5.39 3/4
Nov canola: 2.50 higher 521.00 515.20
September contracts expired quietly at noon.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Stocks opened 200 pts higher and continued to tack on gains as several big corporate deals were announced. The fact that the Fed continues to pump aid into the economy is also sparking more Dow strength.
CLOSING COMMENTS
Weather is going to be mostly beneficial, (perhaps leaning wet at times), for harvest. But will we see harvest pressure? Funds continue to defend positions, and the markets continue to move higher, confirming that a top has yet to be placed in any of the markets. Though the markets remain overbought, they can get to 85/88% RSI before a turn-around occurs; but at these levels house-cleaning typically is imminent. Upper targets where we see 85/88% RSI kick in could be $10.20 Nov beans and $3.77/$3.78 Dec corn. If we get there, would prepare to take a profit if one has not done so already.
Advertised crop conditions are expected to show a decline of 1%, in line with expectations. Advertised harvest estimates for corn is expected to be 5% complete, with spring wheat harvest at 91% vs. 82% week ago. Winter wheat planting is estimated at 13% vs. 5% week ago.
Have a good evening.......
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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