THE OPEN

Nov beans:  3 lower 

Dec meal:  2.00 lower

Dec soyoil:  3 higher

Dec corn:  8 lower

Dec wheat:  5 1/2 lower

The markets opened as called but quickly found new selling interest as another open week of harvest approaches.  Bids at the Gulf are firmer, which is a sign that export loadings are seeing a resumption. Tropical storm Nicholas is expected to hit the coast of Texas, which could produce port closures. 

At 10:00 export inspections were as follows:

wheat:  547,943 mt vs. 412,649 mt week ago (vs. an expected 200-500,000)

beans: 104,368 mt vs. 90,603 mt week ago (vs. an expected 75-300,000)

corn:  138,190 mt vs. 278,294 mt week ago (vs. an expected 250-600,000)

Inspections were fairly underwhelming once again, with prices weakening after the release.

SOY

• The soy complex was weaker after the open despite another 132,000 mt of beans sold to unknown for 21/22.  Harvest pressure continues to weigh on beans at the open, but pullbacks did find some buying- short-covering interest.  Good rains in Argentina are allowing for better bean prospects, while Brazilian farmers in parts of the southern state of Parana started planting after they also received better moisture amounts, according to AgRural.  Planting has already started in many of the other southern states of the country, though at a slower pace than a year ago.  
• November bean prices fell towards the lower end of key support at $12.75 where it picked up some buying and short-covering activity to turn slightly higher into the early session.  Meal prices rebounded as lower prices attracted more buying and a nice rebound.  Soyoil prices were steady vs. meal as traders unwound previous buy soyoil/sell meal trade.  
• Dec. crush falls to 86.76c/bu (vs. 1.45c in June), while oilshare is at 45.03%.  Spread narrowed with Nov 21/Jan22 trading from 7 3/4c to 8 1/2c, while Nov21/Nov 22 inverse firmed to 32c from 26c.  At midday, the outstanding feature is that of higher meal vs. weaker soyoil and oilshare trade.  Beans are splitting the middle between the two.

GRAINS

• Grains consolidated within last Friday's range, with December wheat and corn trading close to the lows after the data from the Sep. report was released.  Spreads were generally firmer, with Dec/March corn trading into 8 3/4c from 9 1/4c.   Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.69 1/4c to 1.74 1/2c.  Export inspections were expected to be light, but wheat inspections were rather good as global demand remains active.  Kansas City wheat futures traded 4-5c higher vs. a struggling Chicago wheat trade.  
• Dec/March wheat spread trade firms into 9 1/2c from 11c, as demand remains active.  Tonight, we will get the latest crop ratings for corn, which may see a slight expected (and advertised) drop in ratings, while winter wheat planting gets underway.  
• At midday, Chicago wheat and corn prices have rallied towards the PM session high but seem to have trouble getting any follow-through buying to the upside.  

AT MIDDAY PRICES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                                           HI                           LO

November beans: 1 lower                                 12.94 1/4                12.77

December meal: 1.80 higher                             344.90                   339.10

December soyoil:  3 lower                                56.46                     55.68

December corn:  2 lower                                  5.19 3/4                 5.07 1/2

December wheat:   1/4 lower                           6.90                       6.79

November canola: 8.00 higher                         862.90                     852.80        

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Crude oil trades to 92.97/barrel on supply concerns as the US dollar falls to 92.57.  Stocks trade over 250 pts higher. 

CLOSING COMMENTS

The chartists and the fundamentalists may now be looking to see if Friday's harvest lows can stand.  Will say that the down-trend into the report was exacerbated by Hurricane Ida, perhaps getting us to sub $5.00 Dec corn faster than if the storm had not hit.  Ideas are still that yields can get bigger.  We are just starting harvest, and by October's report we will be much clearer.  

In the meantime, prices may begin to enter into a large sideways trade.  However, key resistance points may still be viewed as selling opportunities for each market as funds are clearly closer to even in beans, and now hold the smallest length this year in corn.  That is not price friendly. 

Demand for both corn and beans will be a key focus of trade, particularly for price stability.  China has not been in the corn market for a bit, better but not stellar for beans.  

Trading ranges given where we are today:

Nov beans:  $12.60-$13.00, a close over $13.05 helps to solidify a low

Dec meal:  $335.00-$365.00

Dec soyoil:  55c to 60c

Dec corn:  $4.97-$5.30, a close over $5.30 helps to solidify a technical low

Dec wheat:  $6.75 - $7.20, target low is $6.65 but we are close enough.  

Think the charts are trying to stabilize but need funds to buy and for prices to settle over the levels mentioned above to invite further strength. 

First national harvest rating for corn will be released tonight, with conditions perhaps taking a back-seat.  

FYI DEPARTMENT

US consumer's expectations for how much inflation will change over the next 4 years rose last month to the highest level since 2013, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve.  

Have a good evening.............

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, North America