THE OPEN

November beans:  2 higher

December meal:  .60 higher

December soyoil:  21 higher

December corn:  1 1/2 lower

September wheat:  2 3/4 lower

The markets opened on a mixed note, but weakness in soyoil and wheat weighed on prices elsewhere.  Bean inverses remained well bid as more business announcements came through.  Oilshare was weaker.  Buy bean/sell corn trade continued.  

SOY

• The soy complex opened as called but prices soon turned mixed as December soyoil futures traded both sides of unchanged.  
• Nearby bean spreads continued to strengthen as good demand vs. ideal weather continued to play out.  August/Nov beans traded to 5 1/2c inverse with Sep/Nov moving into 1 12c inverse.  Sep. oilshare traded down to 34.0% as traders unwound previous buy soyoil/sell meal.  Sep. crush weakened to 72.54c.  
• Export sales for beans were constructive but traders remain cautious as prices congest.  China was the most active buyer with at least 26 cargoes purchased. 
• Around the 11:00 hour the nearby bean spreads strengthened further, adding to a rally that was present from the start of the trading session.  August beans traded over $9.00 and back towards the recent market tops at $9.05.   

GRAINS

• The major feature of the day was that of stronger corn against a weaker wheat market.  September wheat futures weighed on the market for the first half of the trading session, but around the 11:00 hour a rally in the soy complex created a short-covering rally.  
• Corn continued to see resistance from good weather, but questions continue to arise as regards Chinese buying activity.  Flooding conditions in China continue, possibly impacting current corn and bean acres.  In the last 48 hrs, weather forecasters reported nearly 20 inches falling in southern Henan.  Domestic corn stocks have fallen with prices rising, which implies that China may have to import more corn.  This week China sold around an estimated 4 mmt of corn out of reserves to domestic users.   
• Spreads were firmer with Sep/Dec corn narrowing into 7c from 7 1/2c.   Wheat futures continue to struggle technically.  
• Sep. wheat futures once more approached the 200-day moving average of $5.35 with the inability to move beyond.  Sep wheat/corn trades from 2.01c up to 2.07 3/4c.  

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                            HI                       LO

Nov beans:  4 higher                       8.99 1/2               8.92 1/2

Dec meal:  1.10 higher                    296.50                 294.30

Dec soyoil:  13 higher                     3081                    3020

Dec corn:  1/2 lower                        3.35 1/4               3.32 1/2

Sep wheat:  3 lower                         5.36                     5.27

Nov canola:  .50 higher                   484.90                 483.10

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The stock market started the day on a solid note with gains of 40-60 pts, but turned back below even to trade down 60 pts on rising jobless claims and more covid-19 cases.  Crude oil turned higher from lower, however, trading to new highs of $42.36/barrel.   

CLOSING COMMENTS

Weather continues without many problems as many places have received precip and  dryness concerns dip below 20% across the Midwest.  A weak ridge of high pressure will build across the US over the next few days and then break down again.  Under these growing conditions prices would probably be lower, particularly where beans are concerned.   However, the continued pace of demand for beans, (not so much for corn), is supportive for this market, and therefore pullbacks are going to continue to generate buying interest. 

Would still look for beans to perhaps have one leg higher, which may pull corn along for the ride.  Bean pullbacks are shallow, and prices have been able to shrug off new trade tensions.  China seems to be stocking up now, (for more trade tensions later?), while their domestic corn situation looks compelling.  If short, may want to get something covered in and wait for a better rally to re-apply.  

ON THE CALENDAR

August options expire tomorrow.  First notice day is July 31.   So far there are 2,786 soyoil receipts, and 500 meal.  

July Cattle - on - feed is Friday.  Advertised estimates as follows:

                                    Average            Range 

                                  of estimates      of estimates 

  On-feed July 1                  99.9           99.1- 100.7 

  Placed in June                 103.6          100.1- 107.9 

  Marketed in June               101.0           98.8- 103.1

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America