World Perspectives
feed-grains

PM Post - Eyeing Next WASDE

THE OPEN

November beans:  1 higher

December meal:  .30 higher

December soyoil:  50 pts higher

December corn:  3 higher

December wheat:  6 higher

The markets opened as expected but found selling and a choppy trade.  Energies found profit-taking which impacted soyoil futures as new highs were set at the open.  The lack of export sales announcements remains a bearish input for beans.  While China is buying, it seems that they are purchasing cotton and palm oil, not other ags as promised in the Phased One deal.  

SOY

  • The soy complex opened as expected but after a labored rally beans found willing sellers.  Soyoil futures/oilshare found profit-taking as well, after Dec. soyoil posted a new high at 6190c.  Dec crush trades to 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 48.52%.  
  • Nov/Jan bean spread widens out to 10 3/4c while Nov21/22 trades into even from 3 3/4c inverse.  Nov/March bean spread trades out to 19 1/2c from 18 1/2c.  December meal finds support from end-users at market lows as well as those booking oilshare profits.  
  • At midday, prices are still chopping around but soyoil futures are now 50 pts lower from 60 pts higher at the start of the session.  Beans continue to congest within a range in November from $12.30-$12.55, but the path of least resistance still seems to be lower.

GRAINS

  • Grains were mixed as corn found pressure from opening firmness on the back of a slightly weaker crude oil market and falling beans.  Buy wheat/sell corn trade was a key feature from the start of the trading session with the spread trading from 2.05c to 2.16 1/2c.   
  • December wheat prices firms towards recent highs of $7.63 on fund buying at the start of the session, but corn and bean weakness stops a better rally.  Wheat continues to lead the way higher at midday as fundamentals remain bullish.    Egypt tendered for 50,000 mill grade wheat for Nov 11 to 30 shipment.  The Russian export quota expected is starting in Feb and will run through June, which is a positive in the background of the market.  
  • Dry weather in Russia as well as the northern plains and Canadian Prairies remains supportive for wheat as well, though old news by now and factored into current prices.   At midday, funds are selling corn which breaks minor trendline support, and pressures the market lower.   The EIA report for ethanol found production up more than expected at 6.5% to 978,000 bbl/day, which would utilize 5.15 bln bu of corn.  Stocks were down 1.4%.

AT MIDDAY THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                                    HI                                  LO

November beans:  7 lower                    12.55 1/2                        12.41 3/4

December meal:  1.70 higher                324.60                            320.10

December soyoil:  72 lower                   61.90                              60.33

December corn:  4 lower                       5.44 3/4                           5.32 3/4

December wheat:  3 higher                   7.56 3/4                           7.42 1/4

November canola:  5.00 higher             933.50                             921.30

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Stocks are down 270 pts on worries over US economic growth, problems in China, and concerns over inflation.  Crude oil trades down to $77.15/barrel with the US dollar firmer at 94.44 on speculation that interest rates may be on the rise in the US.

CLOSING COMMENTS

The USDA October report is on the 12th and would expect to see some position-squaring in front of it.  This report could have an impact as there is more information to determine yields / production.  Until then, we could be about to head into large sideways trade.

Trading ranges now given the most recent technical price action:

November beans:   $12.30 - $12.60, top of market is lowered to $12.80, and the low has not been technically validated.  Target low is $12.15/$12.20.

December meal:  $320.00-$340.00, top of the market is lowered to $355.00, and the low has not been validated.  Target low is $310.00/$315.00.

December soyoil:  57c - 62c, top of the market still open to further advances, target high is 64c.

December corn:  5.25-$5.50, tough resistance at $5.48 hard to climb above, trading range sideways from $5.25-$5.50

December wheat:  $7.25-$7.65, sideways range though pullbacks may continue to find support.  

 

WPI on Twitter

WPI POLL

USDA 31 March Prospective Plantings surprise will be?

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports

All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.745/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Soymeal closed at $459.9/short ton, up $1.7...

AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead

AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports

All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.745/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 23 Soymeal closed at $459.9/short ton, up $1.7...

AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead

AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...

livestock

Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers

USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head.  The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up