World Perspectives
feed-grains

PM Post - Meal Drags

THE OPEN

Nov beans:  5 higher

Dec meal:  .50 lower

Dec soyoil:  35 higher

Dec corn:  1 higher

Dec wheat:  1 higher

The markets opened as called with further strength as traders lifted shorts in beans on the back of a continuing strong soyoil performance.  Grains were followers at first but more selling showed in wheat which turned mixed on the day.

SOY

The key feature in the soy complex was that of continuing higher soyoil prices and oilshare.  December meal prices dropped to a new trading range low of $318.00 as traders continue to buy soyoil/sell meal.  December oilshare trades to 49.27% with crush at 1.24c/bu.  Margins are still very good for crush.  November bean prices respond in kind to higher soyoil, retaining a bid into the session.  Rumors continue to float that China has been looking, but no confirmation or sales announcements today.  December soyoil targets 63c as prices jump higher.  Crude oil prices traded to a high at $80.11/barrel, and other vegoil values are firm globally.  November spreads continue to find weakness as traders spread out of Nov.  Nov/Jan bean spread trades out to 11 1/2c carry from 11c, with Nov 21/22 trading from 1 3/4c carry out to 6 3/4c.  Nov/March trades out to 21 3/4c.  At midday, soyoil futures are finding profit-taking, which is tempering morning gains in beans.  Meal prices are firmer on oilshare profit-taking, as end-users use the break to get more coverage.

GRAINS

Grains open firm and continues to be a follower of the stronger soy complex values.  December corn prices continue to find little direction, while December wheat heads to the downside on fund selling.   Wheat is the weak market out today, trading both sides unchanged.  Dec wheat/corn spread relaxes a bit trading from 2.08 1/4c to 2.00c.   December corn spreads are firmer with Dec/March trading into 8 3/4c from 9c, while the Dec 21/22 inverse trades from 9 1/2c to 6 1/4c.  Wheat loses ground at midday, and with it comes a more bearish trade as the chart begins to break down.   A Bloomberg article stated that the Russian wheat export tax would increase to $58.70/ton next week from $57.80/ton.   Russia started the floating tax from June 2, with a $28.10/ton levy.  Rumors are that China is making corn inquiries, but once again there was no business announcement and a fairly open weekend for harvest.  Corn is trying to hold, but the unwinding of the prev. buy wheat/sell corn spread takes its toll here too.  Funds are entering the weekend an estimated long 175K futures / options combined corn.    At midday, wheat futures remain weaker with profit-taking, weighing on corn.

AT MIDDAY PRICES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                             HI                     LO

November beans:  5 higher           12.62 1/2            12.45 1/4

December meal:  .20 higher            322.80                 318.00

December soyoil:  12   higher         63.08                   61.73

December corn:  1 higher              5.38 3/4               5.33

December wheat:  1/4 higher         7.46 1/2               7.35

November canola:  1.50 lower      935.90                 925.30

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Stocks are down 50 pts. with US non-farm payrolls at 194,000 vs. 500,000 expected.  Unemployment fell to 4.8% vs. 5.1% expected.  

CLOSING COMMENTS

Tuesday will be a big day for the markets, as the October report can provide some fireworks.  Funds will enter slightly long beans, longer corn, even to long wheat, long soyoil, short meal.  It may not take much to turn the funds into a bean short if the report is bearish and prices make new lows.  For the day, think that the parameters for corn, wheat, beans, meal, and soyoil are set.  

Trends remain in place, ie higher oilshare, and some buy corn/sell bean trade.  Traders are expecting the report to be more friendly wheat, neutral to slightly friendly corn, and neutral to slightly bearish beans.  There are a lot of neutrals in there, so after the report the determining factor for price direction will be up to what funds want to do with current positions.  Typically, we do find our lows this time of the year into the SA growing season.  

Trading ranges for now:

Dec corn:  $5.25-$5.50

Dec wheat:  $7.22-$7.60

Dec meal:  $318.00-$325/$330.00, could work lower

Nov beans: $12.30-$12.70, could work lower

Dec soyoil:  58c to 63c, could work to 64c/65c

Have a good weekend......

 

WPI on Twitter

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soybeans closed at $13.6975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soymeal closed at $405.6/short ton, down $3...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up