THE OPEN

November beans: 5 3/4 higher

December meal:  1.50 higher

December soyoil;  19 higher

December corn:    1 1/2 higher

December wheat:  1 1/2 higher

The markets opened as called with higher trade as more buyers entered the bean market on the back of more business and further net positive comments about trade negotiations continuing.  Weather remains a mixed bag for both corn and beans.  Feet will be on the ground next week, with the Pro Farmer tour moving through the Corn Belt to see what is going on inside the crops, which may be a very different story than the satellite imagery version.  Whether it is or isn't, the idea that it could feature a different slant than the one in the August WASDE report created a cautious short-covering atmosphere that was alive and well for most of the day.   Private estimates from the DTN tour indicates both corn and bean yields in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois are sharply below USDA numbers.  More comments will be released this afternoon.  

SOY

• The bean/corn spread trade continued to move back and forth as the markets appear ready to carve out wide sideways trading ranges.  Nov beans could be a straddle/strangle market from $8.65-$9.00, but the surprise element would now be more positive as so many negatives seem to have been factored in.
• Beans are currently seeing support from new demand from other origins than China, in that they are the more attractively priced right now than South America.  
• China has reportedly purchased 25-30 cargoes of Brazilian beans as they appear ready to stock up and cover more of their fall needs.  The Brazilian bean basis traded +15 to a high of +145.  
• The NOPA report was also positive, as were meal exports and oil stocks numbers.  
• For the day, the Dec meal chart started on key support at $297.00 where it found more pricings and short-covering interest.   
• Light profit-taking in buy soyoil/sell meal was also apparent with the firm start of the day fizzling out in Dec soyoil by the 11:00 hour.  
• Nov crush traded to 95c/bu while oilshare congested at the 33% level to end this week.  
• Nov /Jan beans maintained a steady tone trading from 13 1/4c to 13 3/4c.  

 

GRAINS

• Corn prices saw a round of buying activity out of the gate with yesterday's reversal of a low trade for Dec corn at $3.69 followed by a fairly good close back over $3.72.  
• The chart does not offer up enough evidence to say we have found a base, but the small upside correction may extend into the close.  
• There has been a solid bid to the Dec corn market all day with prices back over the $3.73/$3.74 support level.    
• Recent buy wheat/sell corn spreads adjusted with December wheat/corn spread moving from 1.03 3/4c to 98 1/4c.    
• Dec/March corn moved out from 12 1/2c into 11 3/4c, while Dec 19/20 moved from 32 3/4c back into 29c.  
• December wheat was the first to turn lower on the day with $4.80 still offering up a tough level of resistance.  
• Egypt's purchase of Black Sea wheat continues to weigh on price action, as the chart searches for the place to spark the best level of demand.  
• Small hedge pressure was noted for corn as it recovered off the lows technically.  

AT MIDDAY THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                            hi                    lo

Nov beans:  5 higher         8.80 3/4          8.70 3/4

Dec meal: 2.00 higher       300.80            297.00

Dec soyoil: 4 higher           2992               2944

Dec corn:   8 higher           3.79 3/4           3.71 1/2

Dec wheat: 3/4 higher       4.78 1/2          4.74 

Nov canola:  1.40 higher   453.50            450.90

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The stock market is up 220 pts with gold prices lower down $11.60/oz to $1504.70/oz.  Gains continue heading into the noon day time period with prices now up over 290 pts.  

CLOSING COMMENTS

Tonight’s Commitment -of-Trader's report should reveal whether funds are a small short in corn, even in wheat, while keeping solid short positions on for beans and meal.  Funds have reduced their net short in soyoil, but are probably not yet long.   Best trends for the week have been lower for grains and higher for oilshare.   

Next week's comments may follow the theme of this week's DTN comments, and the trade is going to pay very close attention as to what they find.   No matter what, it will still be weather that trumps all, as for now the markets continue to digest and congest recent trading range activity.  Corn could move from oversold to a just right status if it keeps today's gains.  At this point, see no reason for the modest comeback to stop now.

FYI DEPARTMENT

NOAA reported that the month of July was the hottest in history since they started keeping records.

Have a good weekend.........

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America