THE OPEN

November beans:  6 1/4 lower

December meal:  2.50 lower

December soyoil:  1 lower

December corn:  2 lower

September wheat:  a5 higher

The markets opened as expected with more pressure in corn and beans, and more short-covering buying interest in wheat and soyoil.  After a very brief time-out, soyoil futures resumed a higher trade based mostly off positive chart technicals.  Crop production continued to weigh on the market throughout the session.  Traders returned to buying wheat/selling corn, while taking profits on recent buy bean/sell corn trade.  

SOY

The major feature in the soy complex was that of higher oilshare.   December soyoil prices continued to congest around the 200 day moving average at 3055c, trading higher into the early part of the session.   Sep. crush traded up to 77.11c/bu and oilshare higher at 34.43%.   Meal's outside day yesterday with a solid close saw lack of follow-through, (as denoted by a weak ADX reading meaning lack of trend), with prices returning to trading range lows once again.  November bean prices entered into a round of profit-taking, as traders exited some buy bean/sell corn spread trades.  August beans backed away from chart highs placed this week at $9.05 1/2 as prices enter into a shallow pullback.  Nearby bean spreads continue firm with the Aug./Nov. inverse congesting from 2 3/4c up to 4 3/4c.  Sep./Nov beans remain well supported as well with trade into 2c from 3c.  Expect the spreads to retain a firm feel with business transacted vs. decent production potential.  Meal spreads narrowed as well with Sep/Dec moving into $4.60 from $5.50.

GRAINS

Grains were mixed as wheat futures turned higher against corn.  The Sep. wheat/corn spread opened into recovery mode with trade from 1.94c up to 2.07 1/2.  Recent highs for that trade featured values over 2.20c.  Sep. wheat remained well bid from the start of the trading session, and on a technical basis retraced some of its large down-move break from market highs of $5.51 1/2.  December corn prices were lower, but did get some strength from commercial pricing activity at recent lows, as well as some traders exiting the buy bean/sell corn trade.  Corn spreads widened with Sep. / Dec trading out to 8 1/4c from 7 1/4c carry.  More storms are crossing from Kansas into Missouri, which is bringing more subsoil moisture to areas in the event that dryness returns.  Towards the midday hour it was announced that Egypt's tender for wheat was awarded to Ukraine.  

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS CALLED:

                                                           HI                       LO

Nov bns: 8 lower                            8.99 1/4              8.90 1/2

Dec meal:  3.90 lower                    296.60                292.30

Dec soyoil:  11 higher                    3084                   3036

Dec corn:  5 lower                         3.35 1/4               3.30 1/4

Sep. wheat: 7 1/2 higher               5.31 1/2               5.18 1/2

Nov. canola: .80 higher                 487.20                 482.30

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The Dow opened 145 pts higher and continued to post gains at midday, up 206 pts.  Crude oil firms to $42.40/barrel as the US dollar falls to 95.30.

CLOSING COMMENTS

The day did not seem to be as much about active selling in corn, but rather liquidation in bean length as old longs take something off the table.  With November beans still close to $9.00 and August close to recent highs, the rainfall amounts were enough to spur ideas that trendline yields could be achieved.  IN weather markets, the rains and crop development will trump all, as clearly indicated today.  Subdivision yellow around St. Louis has now greened a bit with recent precip.  Prices will remain in trading ranges, though seasonals begin to turn negative.  

If December corn begins to crack the $3.30 level, would look for $3.25 as a first target, and end-users will probably hold it as they have exercised a great deal of patience so far.  Wheat and soyoil, which proved were going against the tide this AM, may fall prone to giving up early gains.  

Expect to continue to see China in the mix on good breaks, as they have been on breaks of size.  

Have a good evening..............

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America