THE OPEN

November beans:  steady

December meal:  .80 lower

December soyoil:  18 lower

December corn:    3 higher

December wheat:  3 1/2 lower

The markets started out on a mixed note but buy corn/sell wheat and bean trade and buy soyoil/sell meal spreads were active trends for the day.  Dec oilshare worked higher.    There was light short-covering and bottom-picking in the corn market, which eventually tested the weekly trading range lows of the day.  Net-net funds were sellers at the open on the day pushing price action back towards the lower end of ranges.  

 

SOY

• The soy complex started the day higher, but prices soon turned mixed, despite reports that Chinese crushers were in the market to buy beans from Brazil or Argentina.  News sources reported that perhaps up to 15 cargoes were traded despite weak Chinese crush margins and rising freight costs.    
• In the export sales report, China canceled the purchase of 422,700 mt of 2019/20 beans from the US,  though beans that were scheduled to be shipped to China are still being sent for 599,300 mt.  November beans lost its opening edge triggering small sell-stops under the $8.75 trendline support level.  
• Dec meal triggered small sell-stops under support at $298.00.  
• Nov bean and Dec meal prices worked to the downside of recent price activity.  
• Dec soyoil held its break-out level at 2935c, eventually heading higher.
• The NOPA report indicated crush was far over the average guess, featuring good meal exports and low soyoil stocks.  Dec soyoil responded with a jump to higher levels of trade, with oilshare back over 33 percent to 33.29 percent for November.  November crush traded to 96.05c/bu.   
• NOPA crush for July was 168.09 mln bu, with oil stocks lower than the average guess at 1.467 bln lbs, and meal exports good at 879,319 mt. 
• Buy corn/sell bean adjustment was the feature of the day.  Meal spreads were slightly firmer with Dec/March narrowing into $4.80 from $5.00.  Nov /Jan bean spreads were slightly wider trading out to 13 3/4c.  

GRAINS

• Weaker wheat prices seemed to direct traffic for the day, with Dec wheat once starting the day on the weak side and continuing to trend lower.  
• Chicago wheat was on the sell side of spread activity, with the wheat/corn spread adjusting as well as KC/Chicago.  Dec wheat/corn spreads traded from 1.08 1/4c to 1.01 1/4c.  
• Corn prices started the day on a steady note but funds were back to selling from the opening moments of trade with the Dec contract eventually trading to new lows at just under $3.70, and in sight of monthly lows of $3.63 1/2c.  
• Spreads were also a bit wider with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading to new lows at 34c from 30 3/4c.  Dec/March widened out to 13 1/4c from 12 1/2c.  
• Technically speaking, grains continue in weaker trends though under $3.70 Dec corn there was some light pricing activity and bottom picking.  Sep/Dec wheat traded from 4 1/4c to 6c as more traders liquidate or roll out of Sep positions.  Sep/Dec corn traded out to 11 1/4c from 10 1/2c.  

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                                   hi                                     lo

Nov beans:  5 1/2 lower                          8.85                                8.70 1/4

Dec meal:    2.60 lower                           301.80                            296.60

Dec soyoil:  3 lower                                2978                               2935

Dec corn:    steady                                 3.74 3/4                           3.69 

Dec wheat:  3 lower                                4.82                                4.73 1/4

Nov canola:  1.30 higher                       452.60                             449.30

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The Dow opened up 127 pts but later in the session traded both sides of even.  Crude oil prices continue to sink trading down to $53.77/barrel as more concerns continue about the slowing world economy.  The US dollar was stronger, trading up to session highs at 98.23 against a correcting (lower) gold market.  

CLOSING COMMENTS

The markets continue to trend lower with funds starting to build what appears to be short grain positions from long while extending soy complex bearish positions.  While the Sep report will provide further data analysis, it's rare for the USDA to adjust yields much from August to September, using October as one of the more defining months in the process of heading towards final yield and acres.  

Weaker outside markets remain net negative for commodities in general, as sometimes crude oil acts as a barometer for commodity strength.   Traders appear to be buying the US dollar and selling crude in lieu of economic worries, which signals more bearish time for commodities in general.  For now, ags are going along for the ride.

Have a good evening.....

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America