THE OPEN

November beans: 4 lower

December meal: 1.80 lower

December soyoil:  25 higher

December corn:  3/4 lower

September wheat:  5 1/2 higher

The markets opened as expected.   Trade chatter about possible record corn and bean crops weighed on those markets, while more positive technical trade kept wheat and soyoil supported at the open.  Buy wheat/sell corn trade and buy soyoil/sell meal were features for the day.

SOY

• The soy complex opened as called with oilshare higher on the back of firmer energies, canola, palm oil, and technicals.   
• Sep. crush traded into new highs at 81c/bu, while oilshare traded to 33.83%.  
• November beans and meal spent most of the trading session in the red.   Funds are long beans and it felt as though traders were waiting to see if prices would hold lower support, which is $8.80-$8.83 in November beans.  
• Nearby bean spreads still remain strong with Aug/Nov trading to 9 3/4c against an 11c high this week.  Sep/Nov beans traded  from 1/2c to 1 1/4c carry. 
• China/US tensions continue to rise, and some reports/chatter in the trade assert that China is finding a way to buy the least amount of US beans until harvest arrives next year in Brazil.  In the meantime, the bean market did seem to take a time-out from its recent break to assess demand.  Meal spreads were bid today with Sep/Dec narrowing into $5.20 from $5.90. 

GRAINS

• Buy wheat/sell corn dominated the trade from the start of the day.  The chatter from the country is growing louder that farmers are growing what could be a record corn crop.  Improving conditions next week will only be enhanced by this week's ideal weather.  
• Sep/Dec corn widens to a new low at 10 3/4c from 10c.   December corn found downside follow-through on the break under $3.30 as charts now head directionally lower from sideways.  With the previous congestion zone from $3.30 -$3.40, could flip that to the downside to target $3.20/$3.22, and think that is where this market is headed.  
• Wheat futures remained well bid for the morning with prices attacking previous trading range highs.  Sep. wheat firms back over its lower support level of $5.23 in a well bid market.  
• Sep. wheat/corn trades from 2.15 3/4c down to 2.09 1/4c.  
• EIA report leaned supportive for corn, with ethanol production jumping 5.4% to 958K bbl/day rate, which is the highest noted since March and consuming  5.1 bln bu of corn.  Funds continued to sell corn throughout the day into good end-user pricings.  

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                                        HI                             LO

Nov beans:  1 1/2 lower                               8.89 1/4                    8.83 1/2

Dec meal:  1.90 lower                                  298.20                      295.00

Dec soyoil:  27 higher                                 3030                         2982

Dec corn:  3 lower                                       3.31 1/2                    3.26 1/2

Sep wheat:  5 higher                                   5.33 1/4                    5.23 1/2

Nov canola:  1.90 higher                            489.90                       486.30

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The Dow opened 14 pts higher working both sides of even today.  Crude oil prices were in the green over $41/barrel, while gold prices continued at $1953.20/oz highs.  The US dollar fell to further lows at 93.38.

CLOSING COMMENTS

Prices continue mixed throughout the day.  Corn is looking more and more like the sell leg of spreads.  Buy bean/sell corn and buy wheat/sell corn were in vogue today.  December soyoil and wheat had its own mind of trade, able to retain a firm feel.  

Ideal weather will continue to be the motivating factor of trade, and as such would look for corn to continue to trend lower.   The corn market has hardly been able to enter into a market bounce of any kind, as funds add to further short positions.  Good weather means that some traders may join them in the bean category, but still would expect to see breaks of size well supported in beans as China will probably be there on major weakness.  

Trading ranges for now:

December Corn:  previous was $3.30-$3.40, downside target is $3.18-$3.22

September Wheat:  sideways from $5.20-$5.50, continues to pivot around $5.35

December Soyoil:  sideways from 2950c-31c, continues to find good support on breaks

November Beans:  sideways from $8.80-$9.10, but a break below $8.80 opens the door to test $8.71/$8.72

December Meal:  sideways from $290.00-$308.00, continue to straddle/strangle this range

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America