World Perspectives
feed-grains

PM Post - Up Leveling

THE OPEN

Nov beans:  2 higher 

Dec meal:  .20 higher

Dec soyoil:  32 higher

Dec corn:  3 higher

Dec wheat:  7 higher

The markets opened as called with the soy complex trending weaker after the open as grains stood its ground.  The lack of business announcements remains a trouble spot for beans.  Weaker energies weighed on oilshare.  The US dollar traded to an 11-month high, which should have been a bit negative, but not an influence today as traders position in front of tomorrow's report.  At the open, prices found more buying activity, particularly in the soy complex.

SOY

  • The soy complex opened as called with tentative trade and spreads that were slightly firmer.   Dec. oilshare trades to 45.87% while crush trades slightly lower at 97.21c/bu, still a good margin.  By all indications the bean market may be trying to carve out a seasonal low as it sits closer to the lower end of a large sideways range.  
  • Lack of exports once again promotes a bit of selling at the open, though a slow recovery in the Gulf should find announcements picking up in the future.  Prices started a better rally after the open as more chatter about possible Chinese business continues.  Nov/Jan spread trades wider out to 10c from 9 3/4c, while the Nov 21/22 inverse trades a congestive 26c to 28c trade.  December soyoil rallies from 57c as buyers look at constructive charts.   December meal firms from the open as technicians note the once again hold of major support from $337.00-$338.00.  
  • Matif rapeseed futures continue to trade higher, with canola prices higher today backing soyoil trade.  The lack of clarification over the EPA mandates could be keeping soyoil from a better market rally, but a turn in crude higher from lower spurs on better soyoil trade and higher oilshare values.  At midday, buyers seem to have returned to the soy complex, while some bears decide to probably exit.  

GRAINS

  • Grains were higher as more rumors of Chinese corn business floated in the marketplace, without any confirmation.  Wheat futures continued to maintain strength into the open following a higher European wheat trade.  Corn also responded to higher European trade.  Matif corn is higher due to rains slowing harvest and wheat higher on production concerns.  US soft wheat export prices are becoming more competitive.  
  • Wheat rallies are also able to ignore the rising US dollar, which typically is negative for wheat trade, which further shows that shorts are looking to exit this market in tomorrow's report.  Corn congests but also finds more buying activity based on better technical signals and a chart that features rising prices.  Dec/March corn trades from 7 3/4c to 8 1/4c.  
  • The EIA report was out with production falling by 12,000 bpd to 914,000 bpd, which is closer to what was produced in 2020, and is a 4-wk low, consuming just over 4.8 bln bu of corn.  Stocks were slightly higher to 850 mln gallons.  Ethanol statistics were certainly disappointing, and read so correctly by corn which lost its AM opening strength when the numbers were released.  However, grains do remain well bid at the midday hour.

AT MIDDAY THE MARKETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

                                                                             hi                                        lo

November beans:  10 higher                            12.88 1/2                             12.72 3/4

December meal:  2.00 higher                          342.20                                  339.00

December soyoil:  55 higher                           58.32                                     57.02

December corn:  6 higher                               5.40                                       5.33 1/2

December wheat:  8 higher                           7.17 3/4                                  7.08 1/4

November canola:  7.00 higher                      896.30                                    885.20

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Stocks are up 70 pts. with the US dollar at 94.11, a new high for the year.  Crude trades to $73.74/barrel.  Traders remain concerned about the debt ceiling and a potential gov. shut-down at the end of the week.  Inflation worries continue as well with the Fed possibly raising interest rates sooner rather than later.

CLOSING COMMENTS  

This was a good performance today as the soy complex caught up with some of the gains made in grains, specifically corn.  Trading ranges continue, but charts look constructive for corn, even as some unwinding of prev. buy corn/sell bean trade keeps it from rising too much.  

Technically speaking, here are ranges given the price action today:

Dec. corn:  lows move up to $5.25 and target high is $5.45/$5.50.  Trading range currently $5.25 to possible $5.45.

Nov beans:  sideways still with prices trading from $12.70 - $13.00.  Major direction is still sideways.

Dec wheat:  Prices trading sideways from $7.00-$7.30, very well defined support at $7.00 with moving averages and support lines.

ON THE CALENDAR AND FYI DEPARTMENT:

October futures go into delivery tomorrow with 365 outstanding soyoil recipients registered with the CME, and one meal.  

Ocean Baltic freight at new 12-year highs.  

Have a good evening..........

 

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