Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5 trillion. Applying the necessary 166 percent tariff would inherently reduce imports and thus cause a shortfall in government revenue. Tariffs rose 186 percent in 2025, and the resulting revenues increased from $170 billion to about $270 billion, but imports fell from the country where tariffs were applied most heavily—China. And the tariff rate applied to China was 23 percent. It would require a 165 percent tariff on $3 trillion worth of import...
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen Thursday as persistent inflation reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher Treasury yields have helped support the dollar, potentially reducing the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural...
In yesterday’s WASDE, USDA reduced its overall red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 as declines in beef and broiler output more than offset increases in pork and turkey production. Fourth-quarter beef production was revised downward because of slower fed cattle marketings and...
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk freight markets were stronger this week, but the rally was uneven and due to divergent dynamics across basins and vessel classes. Panamax markets were broadly higher, but Atlantic grain demand was primarily responsible while Asian activity was subdued. That trend...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.