World Perspectives
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Sourcing Changes; Prices Attractive

U.S. export sales are seasonally slowing, which is impacting CBOT futures. American farmers have nonetheless had a good run. The value of the dollar is up 1.6 percent from its low at the start of the year, which further adds competitive pressure.   After nearly a four-month run of U.S. corn being cheaper than South American origin, Argentina took the lead this month as the cheapest. Brazil still faces the burden of an uncertain safrinha crop that could keep its exports below their peak in 2018/19.    It has always been more muddled for U.S. wheat exports, which are tracking better than in the past couple of campaigns but are in overall decline. Spot FOB prices might be close but are offset by Europe’s transport...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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