SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 90.35c/bu while oilshare trades back to 35.0%. Sep/Nov beans trades from 2c to 2 1/2c carry. Sep/Dec corn trades out to 12c from 11 1/2c. Dec20/Dec21 corn trades from 39 3/4c to 40c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 7 1/2c carry to 8c.
PALM OIL
October down 53 ringgits. Cash Sep. offered for RBD palm oil and olien traded down $2.50/mt lower at $702.50/mt and $705.00/mt, respectively.
NEWS
The big feature of the morning continues to be that of big money herds buying gold and selling the US dollar. Gold prices jump to $2,039.30/oz, while the US dollar hits 92.70. Stocks are up 190 pts. with nonfarm private sector job hitting 167,000 in July, showing signs of a slow-down in the labor market recovery, as reported by ADP.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1/2-1 higher
meal: 80-1.00 higher
soyoil: 5-10 lower
corn: 1/2-1 higher
wheat: 2 1/2-3 1/2 higher
canola: .40-.80 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 192,000 mt of beans sold to China for 20/21.
Russian wheat was the cheapest offered to Egypt so far.
TECHNICALS
December Soyoil: Prices remain in an uptrend but are now correcting overbought extremes. The trade to 3178c was up against trendline resistance, and therefore saw profit-taking. Look for prices to drop back to 3060c if 3080c is broken, but would look to cover a short or go long if we get there. Target high is still 3212c.
lower support: 3060c
first support: 3080c
resistance: 3105/3106c
possible range: 3070-3105c or higher
December Meal: Continues a wide sideways range from $287.50 ctr lows up to $303.00 on a bounce. Continue to straddle/strangle this range, and on another break of size trendline support is located at $288.00. This is of course very close to ctr lows. On a firmer start support returns to $291.00, and think we retrace back towards the middle of the range at $295.00 at the very least. Could get long against $290.00 as the sideways trade has dominated price action here.
first support: $291.00
resistance: 294.50/$295.00
possible range: much the same
November Beans: Sideways trade from $8.70-$9.00. Like meal, this range could continue over the next several weeks. Trendline support for the day crosses at $8.78 should we go there, and would not be surprised to do so. Very strong support is also at $8.75, and if we go there would cover a short or try the long side of the market.
trendline support: $8.78
resistance: $8.85/$8.88
possible range: $8.78-$8.88 or higher
December Corn: Bear market trend is in place with a new ctr low at $3.20. Trendline support is located at $3.17 should prices crack the $3.20 level. Resistance moves down to $3.25 on a bump higher, and may hold as a good selling level. There is no reversal signal off the current low, and think we could head into an eventual $3.15 - $3.25 trading range.
trendline support: $3.17
first support: $3.20
resistance: $3.25
possible range: $3.20-$3.25 or lower
September Wheat: Overall trading range is from $5.00-$5.40. The market is correcting lower after breaking through the key support line of $5.20. The chart is attempting to post double lows at $5.07/$5.08, but best support is now located at $5.01, which would be a 62% Fib. retracement from lows of $4.71 from double highs of $5.51 1/2. If prices fail on a rally towards $5.15, look to probably head there.
first support: $5.09
resistance: $5.12/$5.15
possible range: much the same or lower
SEPTEMBER WHEAT
Prices are in a wide trading range from $4.95-$5.51 1/2. The break of $5.20 resulted in a dip to $5.08. With $5.51 1/2 as an established top, could do a Fib. retracement from $4.71. Here are the following retracements:
38% - $5.23 - done
50% - $5.11 - done
62% - $5.01
If short, would start to scale down cover from $5.00-$5.10, and hold the rest in case prices break $5.00. Could also try the long side of the market if prices cannot break $5.08, and in fact trade back over $5.15. Could also straddle/strangle this range which has been in place since the beginning of July.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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