SPREADS
March crush trades to 98c/bu while oilshare is at 36.52%. July/Dec corn trades from 2c to 2 1/2c, while March/May narrows into 6 3/4c from 7c. July/Nov beans trades from 1 1/2c to 3 1/2c, settling in the middle this morning at 2 1/4c. March/May wheat trades from 3c to 3 1/2c. March wheat/corn trades from 1.71 1/4c down to 1.69 1/2c.
PALM OIL
March closed 72 ringgits higher. Ahead of Malaysian Palm Oil Board data to be released on Jan 10, analysts are expecting Dec. production at 1.34 mmt, down 13% from Nov. Dec ending stocks are estimated at 2.06 mmt, down 8.5% from Nov, and at their lowest level since 2017. Exports of palm oil for Dec. are forecast around 1.3 mmt, which would be 5.9% lower than Nov's export pace.
NEWS
Stocks trade higher, up 106 pts with initial jobless claims down 9,000 to 314,000 for the week ending Jan 4, as reported by the Labor Dept. Money herds buy the US dollar and sell crude today, with energies trading down to $59.33/barrel and the US dollar up to 97.49.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 2-4 higher
meal: .40-.80 higher
soyoil: 20-25 higher
corn: 1 1/2-2 higher
wheat: 3 1/2-4 higher
canola: 2.80-3.00 higher
TECHNICALS
March Corn: Trading range from $3.71-$3.91 and moving into the 100-day moving average at $3.87. The trade down to $3.82 was negative, but a rally back over $3.85 stabilizes prices. The market moved into the 100-day moving average of $3.87, so any trade over this level will trigger more short-covering a further rally towards the top of the trading range which has been $3.90.
key support: $3.83
resistance: $3.87/$3.88
possible range: much the same
March Wheat: Prices are on a higher path once again with a constructive settlement near the highs of the session, implying that we could still see a stronger open. The trade back over $5.55 is into key resistance at $5.60/$5.62, but fortifies support at the bottom. The ability to come back shows more strength than weakness and fortifies support again from $5.40-$5.45. Pullbacks today will therefore invite more buying activity and increases the chance of testing current highs.
first support: $5.54-$5.55
resistance: $5.61-$5.62
possible range: much the same
March Beans: Overall trading range is from $9.15-$9.61, and the market has made a case for stronger support now at $9.35 as a key support low. Would look for pullbacks to hold as the market continues to find support on breaks. The ability to bounce back from trading range lows is constructive, and until the chart breaks $9.33 increases the chance that we test prev. highs. Target highs over $9.61 include $9.75/$9.80.
key support: $9.33
first support: $9.45
resistance: $9.55/$9.58
possible range: $9.48-$9.58 or lower
March Soyoil: Prices are congesting from 3440c -35c, and trendline resistance is beginning to form at 3505c. The market has been strong, and recovery from 3440c impressive. The chart offers a chance to test prev contract highs at 3567c should we top 3510c today. With a good close, we could attempt to do that.
first support: 3455c
resistance: 3505c
possible range: much the same
March Meal: Prices still grinding towards the lower end of the trading range at $300.00. A move through $300.00 would trigger sell-stops, ad multiple lows are down there. If short, would continue to price as the chart is clearly a $300.00-$310.00 trading range.
first support: $300.00
resistance: $304.00
possible range; much the same
MARCH CORN
The market fell out of its previous slight uptrend channel, but trade back over $3.85 is starting another one. If wanting to own the market, then $3.83 becomes more buy-able today, and trade back over the 100 -day moving average of $3.87 will increase the chance for a move back towards $3.90. However, the ADX remains extremely weak at 13, and therefore the market may have trouble moving back over $3.88 for a higher move. If short, the market now has to break $3.82, and think it will be a tougher go for the bear today. Look for a $3.70-$3.91 trading range to continue, and the report would have to be very bullish to send prices back to the top of channel at $3.92.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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