SPREADS
July crush trades to 1.15c/bu, while oilshare weakens to 29.42% as traders buy meal/sell soyoil this morning. July/Dec corn weakens back out to 15c from 13 1/2c, while May/July trades from 5 1/4c out to 6c. May/July wheat trades to a new high inverse at 14 1/2c from 10 1/2c, and over the pre. 13 3/4c high. July/Dec meal inverse trades to $8.80 from $5.40 as good demand continues. July/Nov beans consolidates its inverse trading from 7 1/2c down to 3 1/2c. May wheat / corn trades from 2.25 1/2c up to 2.33 3/4c.
PALM OIL
Palm closed down 1% today after rising 1% yesterday, with the June ctr ending 24 ringgits lower. Malaysian April cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded unchanged at $592.50/mt and $595.00/mt, respectively. Malaysia's palm oil exports for March 1-25 fell between 11.7% and 13.6% on weak demand, according to cargo surveyors.
NEWS
Stocks were slightly lower, but the jobless claims report verified what most people already know, that unemployment was going to be higher. US jobless claims soared to a record 3.8 mln as layoffs hit, more than quadruple the prev. record set in 1982. US growth was unrevised at 2.1% rate in Q4. The Dow fell 400 pts lower after the open, but is now down 70 pts. Crude trades to a low of $23.41/barrel, with the US dollar trading to 100.02.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2-2 lower
meal: 3.20-3.80 higher
soyoil: 20-25 lower
corn: 1 1/2-2 lower
wheat: 1 lower
canola: 2.20-2.50 lower
TECHNICALS
May Beans: Prices establishing a trading range from $8.70 to $9.00, with breaks holding. Prices firmed off the overall low of $8.70 to close towards the upper end of the trading range. If short would use these breaks to take something off the table, as the pattern has been to back and fill, but hold consistently at higher levels.
first support: $8.72
resistance: $8.82/$8.85
possible range: much the same
May Meal: Contract high is still $336.30, and the market broke through key support at $325.00 to test lower support close to $315.00 with a $317.20 low. Prices begin higher, with a good bounce off the lower support level. Would look for good pullbacks to continue to own.
first support: $322.00
resistance: $327.50/$329.00
possible range: much the same
May Soyoil: Prices appear to attempt to form a base, and good support today is located at 2625c should we go there. Prices may fall further at the open, and think it likely that we test lower levels of trade. Look for the start of a 2550c-2750c possible trading range.
first support: 2625c
resistance: 2670c
possible range; much the same
May Corn: Prices in a trading range from $3.40-$3.60, but the inability to hold a rally over $3.50 speaks more to possible further weakness rather than strength. Prices are now working into a pennant pattern, and typically we exit these patterns in the same direction we entered them, suggesting there could be another test of $3.40 once again. However, would probably begin to cover shorts on a break towards $3.40, as think it denotes some value.
first support: $3.43/$3.45
resistance: $3.49 3/4/$3.50
possible range: much the same
July Wheat: Market is in a bullish pattern with new trading range highs of $5.71 yesterday. Would look for the possibility that prices test recent highs, with a good close and back and fill activity without a reversal trade. The low of the session at $5.59 1/2 was interestingly a swing point yesterday which held for new highs. Key to moving lower would be to take it out at the open, which does not appear to be the case.
first support: $5.60
resistance: $5.70
possible range: much the same or higher
JULY WHEAT
Crossing lines of resistance are now in place at the peak of the rally yesterday at $5.71 1/2. The market has not put in a reversal trade, and is merely consolidating in terms of price action. The up-trend is becoming stronger with an ADX reading at 30, meaning pullbacks are now viewed as buying opportunities. Would not be short until the market can close under $5.40, which would suggest a top is in place. For now, it's the bottom of a range that has not quite established a top.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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