SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 75.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.23%. August/Nov beans trades to a new high inverse of 5c before closing at 3 3/4c, with a 3c low. Sep/Nov beans trades to 1 1/2c carry from 2c. Sep/Dec corn narrows back into 7 3/4c from 8c carry. Sep/Dec wheat trades into 5 1/2c from 6c. Sep wheat/corn trades from 2.02 1/2c up to 2.07 3/4c.
PALM OIL
Up 14 ringgits on lower forecast production in July.
NEWS
Stocks are slightly lower, down 45 pts. Crude oil trades down to $41.14/barrel, with gold prices surging to $1858.10/oz. The US dollar falls to new lows at 94.82.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1-2 lower
meal: .30-.50 higher
soyoil: 10-14 lower
corn: 1/2-1 higher
wheat: 2 1/2-3 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 211,300 mt of beans sold to unknown for 20/21
USDA reports 453,000 mt of beans sold to China
USDA reports 262,000 mt of beans received for delivery to China
TECHNICALS
September Wheat: Trading range is now from $5.18/$5.20 up to $5.51. Prices remain well bid this AM, nestled between moving average levels at $5.23 and $5.35. On a close towards the higher end of the range, would expect to test $5.35 as a swing point in the wide trading range. Would trade this one from the long side if day trading.
first support: $5.26/$5.28
resistance: $5.35/$5.38
possible range: much the same
December Corn: Prices have been in a sideways range from $3.30-$3.40. Look for prices to probaby recover towards the middle of the range at $3.35. The market has been unable to penetrate $3.30, and the trend is weak. Could suggest that the overhead gap fills eventually at $3.44 for a $3.30-$3.45 trading range into August.
first support: $3.29-$3.30
resistance: $3.35
possible range: $3.30-$3.35/$3.36
November Beans: Overall trading range is from $8.70-$9.00. The chart has now built in a line of resistance from $8.98-$9.02. Would look to perhaps test $8.95 again given the business announcements this AM. Failure to trade over $9.00 again could break prices down to key support at $8.85.
first support: $8.89/$8.91
resistance: $8.95/$8.95
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Prices tested recent highs at 3106c overnight with a 3105c high this AM. Look for congestion trade now from 30c-31c, although it is interesting that prices begin the day back on the previous 200 day moving average of 3053c. Would own breaks in this market, as the potential still exists for prices to target 3115c or higher.
first support: 3030c/3040c
resistance: 3080c/31c
possible range: much the same or lower
December Meal: Prices in a sideways range from $290.00-$308.00. The market is choppy and sideways, but returns support to $292.00-$293.00. A pennant pattern is forming with double lows at $292.00 and double highs at $296.00-$297.00. Look to probably stay within these boundaries.
first support: $293.00
resistance: $296.00
possible range: much the same
NOVEMBER BEANS
The overall price direction has been sideways/higher. Pullbacks have held nicely, though the deepest pullback took prices down to $8.70 into price recovery at $9.00. In the last week, new trendline resistance has formed from $8.99-$9.02, which is creating a back and fill trade. Would continue to own pullbacks in this market, with the best trendline support crossing under the market at $8.83. Given the size of the business announcements, we may not get there, and any move back over $9.00 would be extremely friendly.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America