World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Beans Lower; Corn/Wheat Higher

SPREADS

Sep. crush trades to 75.80c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.23%.  August/Nov beans trades to a new high inverse of 5c before closing at 3 3/4c, with a 3c low.  Sep/Nov beans trades to 1 1/2c carry from 2c.  Sep/Dec corn narrows back into 7 3/4c from 8c carry.  Sep/Dec wheat trades into 5 1/2c from 6c. Sep wheat/corn trades from 2.02 1/2c up to 2.07 3/4c.  

PALM OIL

Up 14 ringgits on lower forecast production in July.

NEWS

Stocks are slightly lower, down 45 pts.  Crude oil trades down to $41.14/barrel, with gold prices surging to $1858.10/oz.  The US dollar falls to new lows at 94.82.

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: 1-2 lower

meal:  .30-.50 higher

soyoil:   10-14 lower

corn:  1/2-1 higher

wheat:  2 1/2-3 higher

BUSINESS

USDA reports 211,300 mt of beans sold to unknown for 20/21

USDA reports 453,000 mt of beans sold to China

USDA reports 262,000 mt of beans received for delivery to China

TECHNICALS

September Wheat: Trading range is now from $5.18/$5.20 up to $5.51.  Prices remain well bid this AM, nestled between moving average levels at $5.23 and $5.35.  On a close towards the higher end of the range, would expect to test $5.35 as a swing point in the wide trading range.  Would trade this one from the long side if day trading.

first support: $5.26/$5.28

resistance:  $5.35/$5.38

possible range: much the same

December Corn:  Prices have been in a sideways range from $3.30-$3.40.  Look for prices to probaby recover towards the middle of the range at $3.35.  The market has been unable to penetrate $3.30, and the trend is weak.  Could suggest that the overhead gap fills eventually at $3.44 for a $3.30-$3.45 trading range into August.

first support: $3.29-$3.30

resistance:  $3.35

possible range: $3.30-$3.35/$3.36

November Beans:  Overall trading range is from $8.70-$9.00.  The chart has now built in a line of resistance from $8.98-$9.02.  Would look to perhaps test $8.95 again given the business announcements this AM.  Failure to trade over $9.00 again could break prices down to key support at $8.85. 

first support: $8.89/$8.91

resistance:  $8.95/$8.95

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil: Prices tested recent highs at 3106c overnight with a 3105c high this AM.  Look for congestion trade now from 30c-31c, although it is interesting that prices begin the day back on the previous 200 day moving average of 3053c.  Would own breaks in this market, as the potential still exists for prices to target 3115c or higher.  

first support: 3030c/3040c

resistance:  3080c/31c

possible range: much the same or lower

December Meal: Prices in a sideways range from $290.00-$308.00.  The market is choppy and sideways, but returns support to $292.00-$293.00.  A pennant pattern is forming with double lows at $292.00 and double highs at $296.00-$297.00.   Look to probably stay within these boundaries.

first support: $293.00

resistance:  $296.00

possible range: much the same

NOVEMBER BEANS

The overall price direction has been sideways/higher.  Pullbacks have held nicely, though the deepest pullback took prices down to $8.70 into price recovery at $9.00.  In the last week, new trendline resistance has formed from $8.99-$9.02, which is creating a back and fill trade.   Would continue to own pullbacks in this market, with the best trendline support crossing under the market at $8.83.  Given the size of the business announcements, we may not get there, and any move back over $9.00 would be extremely friendly.  

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On behalf of a Canadian oilseed processer WPI's team provided market analysis, econometric modeling and financial due diligence in support of a $24 million-dollar investment in a Ukrainian crush plant. Consistent with WPI's findings, local production to supply the plant and the facility's output have expanded exponentially since the investment. WPI has conducted parallel work on behalf of U.S., South American and European clients, both private and public, in the agri-food space.

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