World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Bottom Picking

SPREADS

July crush trades down to 1.12c/bu while oilshare sells off to 29.79%.  Bullspreads remain firm with July/Dec corn trading into 8c from 9c, and May/July corn into 3 1/2c from 3 3/4c.  July/Nov bean inverse weakens to 2c from 5c on liquidation.   July/Dec meal also weakens this AM, trading down to $4.10 from $5.40.  May/July wheat trades from 2.17c down to 2.06c.

PALM OIL

June down 30 ringgits, or off 1.28%, its third day of losses.  Demand concerns and forecasts for better March production are negatives.  

NEWS

Crude trades to $22.10/barrel as indications from Trump are that Saudis and Russia can make a deal.  The US dollar trades up again to 99.91 as money continues to find a safe haven.  Stocks are trading 99 pts higher.  6.65 million Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, surpassing last week's 3.3 million.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans:  3-5 lower

meal:  .80-1.00 lower

soyoil:  3-5 higher

corn:  1/2-1 higher

wheat:  6-8 lower

canola:  1.10-1.20 lower

TECHNICALS

July Wheat:  Chart trades lower from sideways.  Since the market is below the congestion top from $5.50-$5.70, and traded through converging lines of support at $5.43, would expect to see prices trade to $5.30.  Wheat has a tendency to move as far as its congestion phase was when a break-out occurs.  Therefore, one could take the 20c previous congestion zone, and flip it to the downside of $5.50 for a $5.30 target, which coincides with the lower end of the trading range now.  Look for support on a further break to $5.29/$5.33, but think we go there.  

first support: $5.35

resistance:  $5.43/$5.35

possible range; much the same

May Corn:  Prices trending sideways, but resistance is lined up to turn back a rally.   Would look for the market to attempt another run at new ctr lows.  If it cannot do so today, the market  may be preparing to work into a $3.32 to $3.52 price trading range.

first support: $3.32/$3.33

resistance: $3.37

possible range: much the same or higher

May Meal:  Prices broke a wide up-trend channel with a break of the $317.00 level.  The $313.00 level has been the top and bottom of recent ranges and is a pivot point.   Think the lower end of the range that supports another break is $309.00 to $310.00.  For the morning, will be interesting to see if $313.00 can hold again.

first support: $313.00

resistance:  $316.00

possible range; much the same or lower

May Soyoil:  Prices placed double lows at 2582c with a nice bounce back over 26c.  Would look for prices to possibly challenge 2580c again, but think it holds for a 2550c-27c trading range.

first support: 2570c-2580c

resistance:  2620c

possible range: much the same or higher

May Beans:  Overall trading range is from $8.45-$8.95, and the low end close implies that we test $8.55 at the start of the trading session.  Overall prices have bounced around from $8.50-$9.50 for awhile.  If short, would get some coverage on from $8.45-$8.50 should we go there.  

first support: $8.52/ $8.55

resistance:  $8.65

possible range: much the same

MAY CORN

Overall trading range is from contract lows of $3.32 up to lines of crossing resistance at $3.48/$3.52.  Funds will be there to sell rallies if we go there.  So far, the market has not yet given off a good reversal signal, though if prices cannot make new ctr lows today then it could be time for a short-covering rally.  On a break under $3.35, would look for support at the blue trendline which crosses from $3.29/$3.30 should we go there.  If short, may want to cover something in on a break towards $3.25/$3.30.

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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