SPREADS
July crush trads to 60.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%. Spreads are slightly weaker for July/Nov inverse, trading down to 1.33 1/4c, while May/July inverse trades from 5-6c. July/Dec meal trades from $18.00 inverse to $16.10, while May/July trades from $3.40 out to $3.70. May/July corn inverse firms to 18 1/4c from 17c, while July /Dec trades from 64 3/4c to 68c. May/July wheat trades from an inverse to a slight carry at 1 1/2c.
PALM OIL
June down 23 ringgits ending at 3,768 ringgit/mt.
NEWS
Crude oil prices remain weaker this AM, back under $60/barrel with the US dollar firming to 92.41. Equities are higher, up 35 pts. as the US March PPI was up 1.0% vs. an expected 0.4%.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: mixed/firm
meal: 2.20-2.60 higher
soyoil: 25-30 lower
corn: 2 1/2-3 higher
wheat: 4 1/2-5 1/2 higher
canola: 1.20 -1.30 lower (Nov)
BUSINESS
No business reported.
TECHNICALS
May Corn: Prices are in a trading range from $5.50-$5.85 but closing at the upper end of the trading range. Stronger markets show the ability to bounce, and would expect pullbacks to hold. lower support crosses at $5.72/$5.75, and if we go there think it holds. Trendline resistance for the day is at $5.87/$5.90, but the market appears ready to go there.
first support: $5.78/$5.80
resistance: $5.85 - $5.90
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
May Wheat: The chart has turned more constructive, with prices trading sideways from lower. There is now a "v" bottom in place, and prices took out the 100-day moving average at $6.32. Look for congestion trade around the 100-day moving average, but the move past key moving averages suggests we rally up to $6.40-$6.50 and broaden the trading range higher in the process. If short and the market breaks to $6.25 and holds, would elect to take something off, or try the long side.
first support: $6.25/$6.30
resistance: $6.35/$6.40
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
May Beans: A wobbly performance as prices continue to congest from $13.95-$14.40. Any break that comes courtesy of a slight build in resistance should probably be met with short-covering, particularly a break towards the $13.96 - $14.00 level. Would look for this market to remain well supported, though it appears to be dominated by other markets right now such as soyoil and corn.
first support: $14.05
resistance: $14.20/$14.25
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
May Soyoil: Prices are forming a trading range from 51c-56c, using 53c as a pivot point. Major trendline support on a hard break crosses at 5150c, and if short would cover or try the long side of the market should we go there. Prices are congesting tightly, but the primary direction has been higher. Think that 53c is likely to hold, and for the market to advance up towards trendline resistance at 54c once again.
first support: 5280c-53c
resistance: 5375c-5380c
possible range: much the same
May Meal: The market is sideways but sitting under the 100-day moving average at $411.00, and the 50 day moving average of $416.00. Prices have been in the same area all week, namely from $405.00-$408.00. The path of least resistance has been lower, and if prices cannot move back over these averages would look for another break-down once more towards $400.00, which should be a good pricing opportunity.
first support: $408.00
resistance: $411.00/$412.00
possible range; much the same but depends on the report.
MAY CORN
The market set about the business of defining its trading range which is from $5.50-$5.85, with an ascending triangle forming which is price friendly. The market got the green light to rally once prices moved over resistance from $5.55-$5.58. Trendline resistance overhead is slightly higher than the prev. ctr high of $5.85, crossing today at $5.87. But continuing to hang close to or retrace rallies is more bullish behavior than bearish. Look for the rally to gain more traction with a strengthening ADX (trend, currently at an unimpressive 25), should prices top the upper red trendline resistance. Would continue to own good pullbacks, price, or cover a short on breaks, particularly any break towards the lower trendline support level which crosses today at $5.60.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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