SPREADS
March crush is steady at 98c/bu while oilshare works down to 35.43%. Corn spreads are weaker with July/Dec trading out to 4 1/4c from 1 3/4c, while March/May trades from 6 1/2c to 6 3/4c. March wheat/corn trades from 1.85 3/4c down to 1.81c. March/May wheat trades a touch weaker to 1 1/4c from 1/4c.
PALM OIL
SGS estimated Malaysian palm oil exports for FH Jan. 2020 at 525,251 mmt, up 2.2% from 572,409 mt year ago.
NEWS
Stocks are stronger today, rallying up 97 pts having had the ability to stay over the 29,000 level of trade. Crude trades back to $58.39/barrel, and the US dollar trades down to 97.08.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 3-5 lower
meal: .30-.50 lower
soyoil: 20-25 lower
corn: 4 1/2-6 lower
wheat: 6-8 lower
canola: .10-.20 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 180,000 mt of meal sold to Philippines in 2019/20.
What to look for today? Would not be surprised to see an opening rally off the morning lows, as they are closer to key support levels which include:
March beans: $9.21
March soyoil: 3290c-33c
March wheat: $5.60
March corn: $3.80
March meal: $298.00
TECHNICALS
March Beans: Prices topped out from $9.30 - $9.60 and are beginning to work lower with good support at $9.22. The trend remains extremely weak, so would expect to see the 200-day moving average of $9.21/$9.22 holding on a first time break. However, since congestion overhead is so well defined, bounces towards $9.35 are going to offer resistance. Think that the market could now work eventually under $9.21, but if it does then the overall lows could be around $9.00. Would also expect to see another test of $9.33 / $9.35 again before the market drifts lower.
first support: $9.21/$9.22
resistance: $9.32/$9.33
March Meal: Prices sideways once again testing lower support at $297.00-$299.00. If needing to price something, the breaks are a good opportunity to get some coverage on, with trendline support showing visually at $297.00 should we go there. Prices are under key moving averages once again, and into the base of support with an ADX reading at a very weak 8, meaning prices are likely to remain trapped.
first support: $297.00
resistance: 301.00
possible range: much the same
March Soyoil: Prices are nearing key support from 3290c-33c, and would expect to see some congestion trade should we go there. Given the price drop from ctr highs of 3567c, the trade back to 33c is a good place to cover in a partial short position. However, any further correction under 3290c takes the market back to 3250c.
key support: 3290c-33c
resistance: 3355c
possible range; much the same
March Corn: Trading range is from $3.71 to $3.91 and the market is now back below moving averages. However, would still cover shorts on any dip under $3.80, and against trendline support which at $3.78 should we go there.
first support: $3.80
trendline support: $3.78
resistance: $3.85
possible range: $3.81-$3.85 or higher
March Wheat: The market just achieved a new trading range high at $5.78 this week, and the break to $5.63 takes us to the first trendline support level. If short would be scale down exiting from $5.55-$5.62, and looking for places to purchase the market until prices close under $5.40 and present a market top.
first support: $5.59-$5.62
resistance: $5.68/$5.69
possible range: much the same
MARCH WHEAT
Overall trading range is from $5.40-possible highs close to $5.80. The major trend is higher and the uptrend is strong with an ADX reading at 40, meaning market pullbacks are going to find buying interest. If selling from the top have to take off positions at key support levels, as the market top does not appear to be in place. Funds could defend, buying the market on breaks of size. For the day the chart multiple lines of support starting from $5.55-$5.62, and once again at $5.50. Turn of trend would come from a break and close under $5.50. If wanting to sell this market, would wait to do it at the upper line of resistance which for the day is located once again from $5.73/$5.75.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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