World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Chasing Oil Higher

SPREADS

July crush trades down to 1.06c/bu while oilshare is firmer, trading back over 30.0%.  July/Dec corn trades out to 10 3/4c from 9 3/4c, while May/July trades from 4 3/4c to 5 1/2c.  July/Dec meal inverse weakens to $1.80 from $2.60.  July/Nov bean inverse weakens from 2 1/2c down to 3/4c.  May wheat/corn trades from 2.18c down to 2.12c.  

PALM OIL

June down 66 ringgits, losing 2.86%, the lowest level since March 13.  Cash offers for RBD palm traded down $10/mt 

NEWS

Stocks are down 53 pts as crude oil rallies to a new high of $28.56/barrel.  The US dollar trades up to 100.82.  Employers cut 701,000 jobs cause of the virus, with unemployment jumping to 4.4% from a 50-year low at 3.5%.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: 2 1/2-3 higher

meal:  .30-.50 higher

soyoil:  25-30 higher

corn:  2 1/2-3 1/2 higher

wheat:  8-10 higher

canola: .50-.70 higher

BUSINESS

USDA reports 567,000 mt of corn sold to China.  Of the total, 63,000 mt is for 19/20 delivery, and 504,000 mt is for 20/21.  

TECHNICALS

May Corn:  Prices are building new support from $3.32 -$3.33, and think the advance to $3.43 was a foreshadowing that the chart is ready to work into a corrective rally from $3.35-$3.45/$3.48.   Support for the day moves up to $3.35, and would look for the $3.41/$3.43 level to be tested.

first support: $3.36

resistance:  $3.39/$3.41

possible range; much the same

July Wheat: Prices are in a wide trading range from $5.30-$5.70.  On a firmer start would look for pullbacks to now hold.  For the day, support moves up to $5.40, and any move through $5.50 puts the market back in the previous range.

first support: $5.40/$5.41

resistance:  $5.51/$5.52

possible range: $5.45-$5.55 

May Beans:  Prices hit a low at $8.55 3/4, but closed back over $8.60.  Would still look for prices to find resistance, but the rally could extend up to $8.70 with prices working into an $8.50-$8.75 trading range.  Think that the chart is going to head in that direction, and would not be a seller down at this level.  If wanting to be short, should wait for a better short-covering rally.

first support: $8.52-$8.55

resistance:  $8.65/$8.68

possible range: much the same 

May Soyoil:  Prices turned sideways and the trading range appears to be a 2550c-2750c range.  The rally took prices right into trendline resistance with the high trade of 2662c, so any trade over this level would trigger more fund buying and a return to highs over 27c.  If wanting to be short, the good close suggests that prices may head upward rather than down.

first support: 2620c/2630c

resistance:  2660c

possible range; much the same or higher

May Meal:  Prices took out the lower end of the trading range at $310.00, which implies that prices could now fall towards $304.00 / $305.00 where the 100 and 50 day moving averages sit.  If wanting to price something, those levels would present a good opportunity to to do.

key lower support: $305.00

first support: $308.00

resistance:  $312.00

possible range: $308.00-$312.00 or lower

MAY MEAL

The contract high is $336.30, and the market is still searching for price stability.   Taking out $317.00 broke the bottom of the up-trend channel, and trading below $313.00 broke the pivot point which had been the high and low of the market.  New lows today suggest that the market could sell-off further towards $304.00/$305.00, but would probably take advantage of lower prices to get something priced should we go there.  For the moment, the chart has not stabilized at the bottom, but prices typically can rally back up to test violated support lines, which suggests that $313.00 may be tested again.

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From WPI Consulting

Infrastructure investment due diligence

On behalf of a Canadian oilseed processer WPI's team provided market analysis, econometric modeling and financial due diligence in support of a $24 million-dollar investment in a Ukrainian crush plant. Consistent with WPI's findings, local production to supply the plant and the facility's output have expanded exponentially since the investment. WPI has conducted parallel work on behalf of U.S., South American and European clients, both private and public, in the agri-food space.

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