SPREADS

March crush trades to 1.05c/bu while oilshare is slightly weaker, trading down to 36.43%.  July/Dec corn trades from 1 1/2c to 2c.   March/May corn narrows into 6 1/2c from 6 3/4c.  March/May beans trades from 13 1/2c out to 14c, and vs. levels that narrowed into 12 3/4c last week.  July/Nov beans trades from 3 3/4c to 4c.  March wheat /corn trades from 1.64 3/4c to 1.62 1/2c.  March/May wheat trades from 2 3/4c to 3 1/4c. 

PALM OIL

March palm oil closed off 72 ringgits.  Ahead of Malaysian Palm Oil Board data to be released on 10 Jan., analysts are expecting Dec. production at 1.34 mmt, down 13% vs. Nov.  Dec. soyoil ending stocks are expected at an estimated 2.06 mmt, down 8.5% from Nov, and at their lowest level since Nov. 2017. Palm oil exports for Dec are forecast around 1.3 mmt, which would be 5.9% lower than November's export pace.

NEWS

Stocks continue on the defensive side, down 174 pts as worries continue regarding the fall-out between the US/Iran.  The flight to safety trade is on with crude trading up to $64.72/barrel while the US dollar trades down to 96.54.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 1 1/2-2 lower

meal:  .10-.20 lower

soyoil:  40-50 lower

corn:  1/2 lower

wheat:  1-3 lower

canola:  2.20-2.50 lower

TECHNICALS

March Beans:  Trading range is from $9.15 - $9.60.   Key support is located at $9.33, while resistance is lowered to $9.45 on a rally.  Shorts may view today's pullback as a chance to continue to even up, and think that $9.33/$9.35 is a good buying /short-covering opportunity.  If the bean market is to move higher, then it should not fall below the 38% fib retracement of $9.33.

key support: $9.33-$9.35

resistance: $9.43/$9.45

possible range: much the same or higher

March Meal:  Major support is located at $300.00 in what has been a $295.00-$310.00 trading range.  Since the market is at the lower end of the range, could cover a short or try the long side of the market.  Key support is located at $300.00, so any trade underneath would be extremely negative.  

key support: $299.00-$300.00

resistance:  $303.00

possible range: much the same 

March Soyoil:  The contract high is 3567c, and the market has been in a strong up-move since trading over 3350c.  If wanting to be long, could buy the open with a sell-stop in just under 3438c.  The chart appears ready to head into a wide sideways chop from 3440c up to 3550c, using 35c as a pivot point.  Would not sell this market until it can close and settle under its gap at 3429c.

key support: 3440c

resistance:  3490c/35c

possible range: much the same

March Corn:  Sitting on top of moving averages from $3.84-$3.85, and moving sideways from $3.85-$3.92.  If short, would probably use this level to cover something, though the chart looks more vulnerable to further downside at this time given its ability to move into support areas.   

key support: $3.85

resistance:  $3.88/$3.89

possible range: much the same

March Wheat: Trading range is from $5.20-$5.65, and the market has the strongest support at $5.40.  The market closed on the defensive but would not be surprised to see a rally back towards $5.60, since the chart closed over $5.50 again.  

first support: 5.49

resistance:  $5.55/$5.58

possible range: much the same 

MARCH WHEAT

Trading range has been from $5.25 - $5.65, and the uptrend remains strong with an ADX reading of 36, meaning that pullbacks are still going to invite new buyers to the table.  The market made a new low for the move down overnight at $5.48 1/2, so could try to own the market against this level, but the best support point is lower still at $5.43, where both the long term trendline support and the 20 -day moving average meet.   If short, would probably be scale down covering at this point, or would try the long side until the market can break and close under $5.40.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America