SPREADS
November crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare is 33.26 percent. Corn spreads stabilize with Dec 19/Dec 20 trading to 32 3/4c from lows of 34c, and an inverse before the Aug. 12 report. Dec/March corn tightens to 12 1/4c from 12 1/2c. Sep/Dec corn firms back into 10 1/4c from 11c. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.02 1/4c to 1.03 3/4c.
PALM OIL
Down 28 ringgits
NEWS
Stocks are up 209 pts to start the day with support under energies with a high in crude at $55.67/barrel. The US dollar strengthens up to 98.33. June US housing starts were revised to -1.8 percent from 0.9 percent.
CALLS
Calls are higher across the board:
beans: 4-6 higher
meal: 1.20-1.50 higher
soyoil: 18-22 higher
corn: 1 1/2-2 higher
wheat: 1/2-1 higher
canola: 80-1.00 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 296,500 mt of beans sold to unknown for 2019/20
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Ssideways trading range for now from $8.55-$8.95. Could straddle/strangle this trading range. Visually the direction is lower in a downtrend channel, with good support nearby at $8.65 should we go there and think it would stick as a temporary low. Good resistance moves down to $8.85.
first support: $8.69/$8.71
resistance: $8.81/$8/82
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Major direction has been higher, with a break-out to the upside of 2930c. The new high has been 3025c. The low for this session is 2945c and it is vital key support in that the 200-day moving average is located at this level, and the chart has formed an uptrend channel. Bottom of the channel and the 200-day moving average are located at 2940c.
With so many levels of support showing here, any trade underneath is going to turn prices back to a test of 2880c-29c and broaden the trading range to the lower side. Falling to the downside of this uptrend channel (with a violation of 2930c confirming) implies we have set a temporary high, and that the market would be searching for a trading range bottom.
key support: 2940c
resistance: 2995c/30c
possible range; much the same
Dec Meal: Still in a trading range from $295.00-$305.00. The rally failed at $305.00, but we may still stay supported at the $295.00 overall low.
key support: $296.50/$297.00
resistance: $300.00
possible range: much the same
December Corn: The market is attempting to recover, finding good commercial buying just under $3.70 to put in a good close yesterday. The relative strength index is oversold at 27 percent, indicating that the further corn prices drop without a correction, the more likely we are to get to one. Projected target low is $3.67, and we may see what is under $3.70 one more time. If short, would probably get something covered down here as the market may be in the process of forming a temporary $3.65-$3.90 trading range.
lower bottom support: $3.67
first support: $3.71
resistance: $3.77/3.80
possible range: $3.71-$3.79/$3.80 or lower
December Wheat: Prices appear to be forming a trading range from $4.70-$4.85, with trendline support now crossing at $4.68 on a break if this market turns two-sided. Key resistance is now located at $4.83, so any trade over this level is going to kick off more buying and extend into the upper part of the trading range. If short, would probably be covering a partial position from $4.65-$4.70, and certainly more aggressively if we take out $4.83. On a trade over $4.83, the next best level of resistance does not cross until we hit $4.88/$4.92.
trendline support: $4.68
resistance: $4.80
possible range: $4.72-$4.82 or lower
NOVEMBER BEANS
This chart remains a more balanced one (not as oversold as corn which is at 27 percent), with a weak trend at 16. The weaker trend will keep price action in trading range activity from what appears to be an $8.65 low to $8.95, using $8.75 as a swing point.
Overall prices are now correcting from the break of $9.00, forming a downtrend channel. Since we are closet to the bottom of the channel than from the top, the path of least resistance on a firmer start is probably towards the top of channel as we consolidate the recent break. With funds net short, today's theme could be that of short-covering on breaks. A channel support level on a break is $8.68 (would be surprised to go there), with overhead resistance at $8.80. Could continue to straddle/strangle this market as we move through the make or break month of August for bean development.
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Chart turned higher from sideways with a break-out to the upside of 2930c which resulted in a 3025c trading range high. We are beginning to now turn sideways. The uptrend channel below shows the recent range from 2930c to 3025c. The 2930-2945c now becomes key to maintaining higher trade, as it is first and foremost the break-out level to the upside, but also is where channel support and the 200-day moving average line cross. If we violate 2930c, would look for the market to setback to 2880c for a possible 2850c - 3025c trading range.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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