SPREADS
Jan crush trades down to 1.16c/bu while oilshare strengthens to 31.22%. The corn inverse weakens with Dec/Dec trading down to 18 3/4c from 24 1/2c, and values that were at 27c. Dec/March trades back to 1 3/4c carry. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.94 1/2c to 1.98 3/4c. Dec/March meal inverse weakens to $16.10 from $18.80, but still remains very strong in the big picture. Jan/March inverse weakens to 14c from 16c, also still fairly strong despite profit-taking.
PALM OIL
Lower in early trade on profit-taking by the bull and following weaker crude oil prices. Fitch Solutions called for palm oil to ease into the end of 2020 before strengthening again in 2021. Cash markets were high with RBD palm oil and olein up $10/mt ending at $805.00/mt and $807.50/mt, respectively.
NEWS
The stock market is down 610 pts as fears over lockdowns continue. Crude oil falls to $37.43/barrel, impacting soyoil futures. The US dollar trades to 93.64.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 18-20 lower
meal: 10.00-12.00 lower
soyoil: 75-80 lower
corn: 8-10 lower
wheat: 11-13 lower
canola: 8.00-10.00 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 120,000 tmt of beans for unknown
USDA reports 110,000 tmt of beans to Egypt
USDA reports 207,000 tmt of corn to South Korea
TECHNICALS
December Corn: Prices are trying to establish a trading range, with morning support at $4.02 first, and under that $3.99 where the 20 day moving average is located. The uptrend still remains strong, and would look for pricing ideas to increase from $4.00-$4.05. A settlement under $4.00 would trigger a further sell-off, but we may not go there.
trendline support: $3.99-$4.02
resistance: $4.08/$4.11
possible range: $4.02-$4.08/$4.10
December Wheat: Prices form a possible top with a poor close which could see more weakness at the start of the session. Would look for funds to go for sell-stops around $6.00, and trendline support should cushion a further break at $5.90 if we go there. If short, would scale down cover from $5.90-$6.00.
first support: $5.98-$6.02
resistance: $6.06/$6.08
possible range: $5.98-$6.08/$6.10
January Beans: The market set a new contract high at $10.88 and is now correcting overbot extremes. The turn lower from higher is going to create more profit-taking, and would look for follow-through selling towards $10.48 to $10.52. If it appears that this level is going to hold, would cover a partial short or try the long side of the market.
first support: $10.48/10.52
resistance: $10.62/$10.65
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Prices set a new contract high at $292.70 before turning lower from higher. There are multiple support points at $370.00, and sell-stops likely underneath. Would look for $365.00-$370.00 to find increased end-user pricing ideas, and to hold for a low end trading range.
first support: $369.50-$370.00
resistance: $375.00
possible range; much the same
December Soyoil: Futures are in a sideways range from 32c-35c. Double lows are at 3228c, and strong trendline support is located at 3270c. Would look for a test of 33c, and sell-stops that take us down to 3270c where prices may find stability.
first support: 3270c-33c
resistance: 3340c
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER WHEAT
The overall trading range was from $6.16 -$6.38, but sell-stops were triggered under $6.15 turning prices lower. IN the process, a descending triangle emerges which is bearish in nature and could lead the market on a lower path down to $6.06, where the 20 day moving average sits. Under $6.06 one could be short perhaps down to major support at $5.90. Visually and in terms of historical patterns, this chart is more bearish than others. If short, would scale down cover from $5.90 - $6.05.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America