SPREADS
March crush trades at 1.00c/bu while oilshare backs down to 35.22%. Traders are buying meal / selling soyoil today with lower palm oil price activity. Spreads are weaker in corn, with July/Dec trading out to 2 3/4c from 1 1/4c. March/May corn is steady/firmer with trade into 5 3/4c from 6 1/2c, and values that were out to 7c. July/Nov beans trades out to 6 1/2c from 5c. March/May meal trades from $4.50 to $4.70. March/May wheat trades from 3/4c to 1 1/4c carry.
PALM OIL
April closed down 12 ringgits. Asian palm oil prices were higher recouping some of last week's losses. Malaysian exports of palm oil fell 9.9% for the Jan 1-20 time period AT 765,801 mt, as reported by SGS. Thousands of tons of refined palm oil are delayed or stuck at various Indian ports after the world’s biggest edible oil buyer placed restrictions on imports amid a diplomatic row with key supplier Malaysia.
NEWS
The Dow is off 60 pts in weaker trade with crude down to $57.68/barrel, and the US dollar weakening to 97.39.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 6-8 lower
meal: .20-.30 lower
soyoil; 45-55 lower
corn: 2 1/2-3 1/2 lower
wheat: 1 higher
canola: 1.40 -1.50 lower
TECHNICALS
March Corn: Prices are sideways from $3.71 - $3.91, and therefore would look to straddle/strangle this level with perhaps an upside exit since the market has so strongly rejected values under $3.80. However, $3.80 is becoming a pivot point, and it may be that more export biz or a weather problem takes us to $4.00. Other than that, the trend remains weak and we are back under moving averages once again (100 day at $3.88).
first support: $3.83
resistance: $3.88
possible range: much the same or lower
March Wheat: Prices are sideways/higher with the major trend up. The market continues to walk back price action, but higher lows continue to hold. Major support today is $5.57, and major resistance is at the top of the uptrend channel at $5.80. Should we go to $5.80 would consider taking a profit, as values will begin to work into overbought territory. However, until a sign of a reversal is in place, would keep the rest of the long position and add more on a move over $5.80, should the chart go there.
first support: $5.65
resistance: $5.75
possible range: much the same or higher
March Beans: Price action is weak, with the market finally approaching key resistance at $9.33 (could not even make it up there), to close on its lows. This increases the chance of a break towards the lower end of the trading range which is from $9.00-$9.15.
key support: $9.20
resistance: $9.30/$9.33
possible range: much the same or lower
March Soyoil: Contract highs are located at 3567c and the move back below 33c sets the market up for a test of double lows at 3275c. If short, would probably cover something in at 3275, as the chart has a pivot point at 3250c, which suggests that prices could hold should we go there. Trendline support is 3275c, which we may test at the open. If we break it, look to trigger sell-stops to 3250c.
key support: 3250c
first support: 3270/3275c
resistance: 3305c/3310c
possible range: 3270c-3310c or lower
March Meal: Continues in a trading range from $295.00-$308.00. The market has consistently failed at $308.00 leading to a test of key support. If needing to price something, would continue to use breaks under $300.00 to do so.
first support: $299.00
resistance: $302.00
possible range: much the same
MARCH BEANS
Overall trading range is from a low of $9.16 up to $9.61. The 200-day moving average is located at $9.22, where the market closed. Closing on moving averages increases the chance that we break them, and sell-stops will be triggered if the market breaks $9.20. In that case, could be short for a potential move under $9.16, which probably results in a move to $9.02 where the bottom of the market may now be located. While a top is in place, the lower end of the trading range is going to be tested, so resistance now looks stronger than support. If long, would probably exit and reassess. Think the market may be ready to slip down to a $9.00-$9.45 trading range, which is a bit lower than the prev. at $9.16-$9.61.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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