SPREADS
Oct. crush trades up to 1.07c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 32.89 percent. Spreads are a bit firmer with Dec/March corn trading into 12 1/4c while Dec 19/Dec 20 improves to 40 1/2c from 40c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 13 3/4c to 14c. Dec/March meal widens out to $5.30 from $5.20.
PALM OIL
Down 9 ringgits
NEWS
Stocks are higher, the US dollar continuing stronger at 99.09, getting close to the all-time high at 99.37. The stronger dollar is price negative for wheat, that may have run its course on a market rally. US consumer inflation slows to 0.1 percent in August. Weekly jobless claims were revised to 219K.
REPORTS
Export sales:
Beans: 2018/19 net 1.17 mt (vs. an expected 2018/19 at - 50 to plus 50 and 2019/20 at 600-1.1 good).
Meal: 2018/19 net 38,000 mt and 2019/20 net 81,100 mt (vs. an expected 2018/19 at 25-75 mt and 2019/20 100-250 neutral).
Soyoil: 2018/19 net 8,200 mt and 2019/20 net 2,600 mt (vs. an expected 0-10,000 good).
Corn: 2018/19 net 734,400 mt and 2019/20 net 498,100 mt (vs. an expected 2018/19 at -50 to plus 50 and 2019/20 500-1.0 better than expected).
Wheat: 2019/20 net 610,900 mt and 2020/21 minus 8,200 mt (vs. an expected 2019/20 at 300-600 good).
In general, export sales were better than expected and added to a firm morning tone.
We begin higher across the board:
beans: 6-8 higher
meal: 1.50-2.00 higher
soyoil: 18-22 higher
corn: 1/2-1 higher
wheat: 1 1/2-2 higher
canola: 1.50-1.80 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 113,036 mt of corn sold to Mexico for 2019/20.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Charts moving sideways from lower and testing the upper portion of the trading range, which is from $8.75-$8.80. The 100-day moving average crosses at $8.85 and support moves up to $8.72. Should we open and hold $8.70, would look for test of $8.82 once again into the report. Would see if funds want to cover in their short on a large break should the data be bearish.
first support: $8.70
resistance: $8.77/$8.82
possible range; depends on the report
December Meal: prices still in a major down-trend channel with each new low providing a spring-board to higher price action. Lower support is now located at $291.00, while major resistance is $300.00. Would look for a setback towards $294.00 to hold while $298.00 provides morning resistance.
first support: $294.00
resistance: $298.00
possible range: depends on report but any trade over $300.00 would trigger more fund buying and a higher move towards $305.00
Dec Soyoil: Overall trading range is from 2820c - 2920c, and for the day we closed just above 29c. The chart direction is sideways and the high of the move was 3025c. First support moves up to 2890c and would look for a possible test of 2925c-2930c.
first support: 2890c
resistance: 2915c-2930c
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
Dec Corn: New contract low is $3.52 1/4 and we have yet to travel very far away from it. Trade over $3.65 will trigger buy-stops and a trip towards $3.70. Current trading range appears to be forming from $3.52 1/4 to $3.70, but there is really not a good reversal trade off the contract low to say it is final. However, in the past the Sep report can often lock in the season low. With funds short, a new low met by a reversal trade and higher close would suggest we are on our way to a seasonal low. A very bearish report with a close under $3.50 rewards the bear. Given our move down from contract highs this spring, would begin to look for a bottom.
first support: $3.55
resistance: $3.63 1/2 to $3.64
possible range: depends on the reaction to the report
Dec Wheat: Trading range is sideways from $4.50 1/2 to $4.83 1/2. The market will trigger buy-stops over $4.85 with order flow dominating. Next resistance on a move over $4.86 takes us towards $4.96 /$4.98 before we see a stop.
first support: $4.72/$4.73
resistance: $4.83 1/2-$4.85
possible range: depends on the report
US DOLLAR CHART
The money herds love the US dollar, and for good reason. The chart remains impressive suggesting a return to recent highs. Major trend remains sideways/higher. The higher US dollar also remains negative for wheat mostly, and commodities in general.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Total inventory, placements and marketings all came in lower than the pre-report estimates, though total inventory was at the same volume or higher than last year for the seventh consecutive month. Placements came in well below the average...
