SPREADS

July crush firms back to 58c/bu while crush trades to 38.10%.   July /Nov beans inverse trades from 1.70 1/4c up to 1.75 1/2c, while May/July congests from 8 1/2c to 10c.   July/Dec corn trades from 70 1/4c inverse to 67 1/2c, while May/July firms to 17 1/4c from 16c.  July /Dec meal trades from $28.70 inverse to $27.20.  May wheat/corn trades from 61 1/4c to 65c. 

PALM OIL

June crude trades 44 ringgits higher ending at 3,616.  Intertek forecast palm oil exports in March at 1.270 mln up, up 26% from 1.001 mmt in Feb. 

NEWS

Stocks are 16 pts lower with crude oil mixed trading at $60.10/barrel.  The US dollar falls to 93.09.  The ADP reported the total number of jobs revised to 176,000 from 117,000.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  8-10 higher

meal:  1.20-1.40 higher

soyoil:  90-99 higher

corn:  mixed

wheat:  steady

canola:  .20-.40 lower

BUSINESS

No business reported.

TECHNICALS

May Corn:  Overall trading range is from $5.30 - $5.60.  The range has been intact for several months, so the report this morning may break it free or confirm the current price levels are value.  For the day, first support is $5.33/$5.35 and resistance is at the 50-day moving average of $5.42.  Since we saw some profit-taking heading into the report, there could be more of the same before 11:00.  Would expect recent lows to be tested.

lower support: $5.29-$5.32

resistance:  $5.41/$5.42

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

May Wheat:  Overall trading range has been lowered to $6.00-$6.35, using $6.15 as a pivot point.  The major direction has been lower, and the market closed at the bottom of the range and into key support.  Therefore, would expect some opening pressure and the improved chances that May wheat trades under $6.00.  Target low is $5.90.  

first support: $5.97/$5.98

resistance:  $6.05/$6.08

possible range: much the same or lower, but depends on the report.

May Beans:  The overall low of the range was posted today at $13.64 3/4.  Would now expect firming into the report and congestion trade from $13.65-$13.93.  The trend is weak, but the price action yesterday took us to a major support line.  Would look for the possibility of further weakness, but pullbacks may hold as areas for recent shorts to cover something in.  Others may bargain hunt purchase this dip.

first support:  $13.70

resistance:  $13.83/$13.90

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

May Soyoil:  Prices dropped to a new low for the move down at 5022c but note that is right into a long term major support line.  The bounce was healthy as a combination of pricing, short-covering, and bargain hunting lifts values.  Would look for a trading range from 51c-55c to possibly begin, and would be more surprised to see 50c violated.

first support:  5140c-5150c

resistance:  5220c-5250c

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

May Meal:  Overall trading range is from $395.00-$410.00.  Prices are in a downtrend channel, but the move lower is stalling.  Would look for the possibility of re-testing $395.00 if soyoil begins to rise, and traders reapply long soyoil/short meal trades.  

first support: $396.00/$398.00

resistance:  $402.00/$403.00

possible range: much the same but depends on the report

MAY BEANS

Prices reached a new low of $13.64 3/4 overnight, with an increasing trend lower from higher.  In the big picture, the market is still in a very wide range from $13.50-$14.50.  The previous broken moving average at $13.93 now becomes resistance, but would look for the market to begin congesting from $13.65-$13.95.  The ADX remains weak at 15, but there has been downside follow-through.  If needing to price or cover a short, think that at these levels it is a good place to start.  If the market breaks below $13.50 can afford to be more patient.  Given what has preceded the market into now, would prefer to own for the long term.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America