SPREADS

Oct. crush is lower at 98c/bu while oilshare trends down to 32.56%. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades from 41 1/2c to 40 1/2c. Dec/March corn narrows into 12 1/2c from 13c. Jan/Nov beans spread narrows into 13 1/2c from value that were out to 14 1/4c this week. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.19 1/2c to 1.17c. 

 

PALM OIL 

Oct futures down 19 ringgits - - SGS estimated palm oil production exports over the Sep 1-10 period at 337,570 mmt, off 29% from their Aug 1-10 estimate

 

NEWS

Equities are higher with the Dow up 38 pts and crude oil trading to a high at $58.30/barrel. The US dollar trades up to 98.66.

 

CALLS

Calls today are mostly lower:

• beans: 2-3 lower
• meal: 80-1.00 lower 
• soyoil: steady
• corn: 1/2 lower
• wheat: 1 1/2-2 lower
• canola: .20-.50 lower

 

TECHNICALS

Nov beans: current trend is sideways with a trading range from $8.50-$8.82. The chart begins back under $8.75 which may promote more selling activity again, and perhaps a test of $8.65 which is looking more like a pivot point now given the defined trading range. However, would not be surprised to see the market trade both sides even on a weaker start and test $8.77/$8.80 again. 

• first support: $8.68
• resistance: $8.75/$8.77
• possible range: much the same

 

Dec meal: major chart direction is sideways/lower, but, like the bean market, when a new low is posted there is little down-side follow. Top end of the downtrend channel was tested overnight at $299.00, so any trade back over $300.00 will be very constructive for this chart and could represent a major turn in trend. Given a weaker open, think the market will see more buy soyoil/sell meal trade and a test of $295.00 again.

• first support: $294.50/$295.00
• resistance: $298.00
• possible range: much the same 

 

Dec soyoil: turning sideways capturing support at 2820c as we do so. Would look for a better chance of a short-covering rally from this market and eventually another test of 29c-2915c. Support moves up to 2830c and resistance back to 2880c.

• first support: 2835c
• resistance: 2875c to 2890c
• possible range: much the same or lower

 

Dec corn: trying to find a bottom but still close to contract lows just printed this week at $3.52 1/4. However, the objective low at $3.52 1/4 is also long- term support, as is $3.50, so the correction off this level is not surprising. The market rallied to key resistance at $3.63, so with funds net short would look for a further improvement towards $3.66. There are good odds the market could be moving into a temporary $3.52 - $3.70 trading range.

• first support: $3.57
• resistance: $3.63 1/2-$3.65
• possible range: much the same

 

Dec wheat: good corrective bounce off the low end of the trading range at $4.50 1/2. The market has key resistance from $4.83 1/2 and feels like it could trigger a few buy-stops up there if bulls push prices back there again. Any trade over $4.90 becomes a possible extension rally to $5.00. But it's been a fairly big move, so would expect some resistance and would be more surprised to see trade up to $4.90.

• first support: $4.74
• resistance: $4.83/$4.84
• possible range: much the same

 

NOVEMBER BEANS

Top of the market is $8.82 and we continue to place new trading range lows without any follow-through to the downside. Overall trading range is now $8.50-$8.82. The ADX is very weak at 13 (anything under 25 is lack of trend) and therefore is the reason for the quick turns higher after lows are posted. Would look for a continued sideways pattern of trade, and on breaks down to new lows would adhere to the market price pattern and cover in shorts for upside retracement. 

 

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America